海上丝绸之路沿线港口发展对经济增长的空间溢出效应

Spatial spillover effect of port development along the Maritime Silk Road on national economic growth

为探究海上丝绸之路沿线国家港口经济发展情况,量化港口发展对沿线国家经济增长的空间溢出效应,基于2010-2019年的跨国面板数据,借助ArcGIS软件,考察沿线国家港口与经济发展的时空演变情况,建立空间计量经济学模型并求解,量化港口发展对国家经济增长的空间溢出效应,并进一步细化测算直接与间接溢出效应。研究表明,港口发展对沿线国家经济增长有显著的正向空间溢出效应,且一国的港口发展带动邻近国家经济增长的间接溢出效应大于对本国经济增长的直接溢出效应。

In order to explore the economic development of ports in countries along the Maritime Silk Road and quantify the spatial spillover effect of port development on the economic growth of countries along the Maritime Silk Road,based on the transnational panel data from 2010 to 2019 and with the help of ArcGIS software,the temporal and spatial evolution of ports and economic development in countries along the Maritime Silk Road was investigated,a spatial econometric model was established and solved to quantify the spatial spillover effect of port development on national economic growth,and the calculation of direct and indirect spillover effects was further refined.The results show that port development has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the economic growth of countries along the line,a country’s port development can advance the economic growth of neighboring countries,and the indirect spillover effect of latter is more than the direct spillover effect of former.