劳动力成本上升、主产区优势与中国大豆种植面积变化--基于1991—2019年的省级面板数据

Rising labor costs,advantages of main producing areas,and the changes of soybean planting area:Based on a provincial panel data in China from 1991 to 2019

为了解决在耕地资源有限情况下合理扩大大豆种植面积的问题,文章基于1991—2019年中国大豆生产的省级面板数据,在控制资源禀赋、外部环境和市场因素的情况下,运用固定效应模型实证检验劳动力成本上升对中国大豆种植面积变化的影响机制以及主产区优势在上述影响机制中的调节作用。结果表明,在非主产区省份,劳动力成本上升会降低大豆种植面积,在主产区省份,劳动力成本上升带来的影响会被主产区优势所弱化,甚至还会增加大豆种植面积,分区域来看,主产区优势的调节效应仅在西部地区不显著,在东部、中部和东北地区显著为正,说明大豆种植面积的合理扩大应该集中在大豆主产区省份,而非盲目扩大,进而依靠规模经济来降低生产成本,利用主产区优势来弱化劳动力成本上升的冲击。因此,提出在主产区合理扩大种植面积,形成规模化种植,降低生产成本;在种植面积扩张有限的情况下,增加技术和育种方面的投入,提升大豆单产和品质等对策建议。

To solve the problem of reasonable expansion of soybean planting area under the condition of limited farmland resources and based on a provincial panel data of China’s soybean production from 1991 to 2019,this article empirically tested the impact mechanism of rising labor costs on China’s soybean planting area and the moderating role of the advantages of main producing areas in the above impact mechanism by the fixed effect model,while controlling resource endowment,external environment,and market factors.Results show that in non-main producing provinces,rising labor costs will reduce soybean planting area,while in main producing provinces,the impact of rising labor costs will be weakened by the advantages of main producing areas,and even increase the soybean planting area.From the regional perspective,the moderating effect of the advantages of main producing areas is not significant in the western region,and is significantly positive in the eastern,central,and northeastern regions.It shows that the reasonable expansion of soybean planting area should be concentrated in main producing provinces of soybean,rather than blindly expanding,and then rely on the economies of scale to reduce production costs and use the advantages of main producing areas to weaken the impact of rising labor costs.Therefore,this paper provides the following countermeasures:reasonably expanding the planting area in main production area,forming large-scale planting to reduce production costs,and increasing investment in technology and breeding to improve soybean yield and quality when acreage expansion is limited.