数字经济发展能否促进我国经济结构转型升级?

Can the Development of Digital Economy Promote the Transformation and Upgrading of China’s Economic Structure?

逐渐兴起与发展的数字经济已经渗透到我国社会经济系统的各个领域与环节,进而对国家经济结构的常规演化产生可视性冲击。本文深度剖析数字经济发展影响我国经济结构转型升级的内在机理与作用途径,基于2011-2018年30个省份面板数据,运用空间计量模型实证检验数字经济对我国经济结构转型升级的影响效应。研究显示,数字经济发展能够显著促进我国经济结构转型升级,其中数字经济覆盖广度与支持服务程度对我国经济结构转型升级产生积极作用,而数字经济使用深度则抑制了经济结构转型升级。进一步分析传导机制,数字经济发展主要通过影响要素结构与产业结构促进我国经济结构转型升级,而数字经济发展通过作用于收入结构则对经济结构转型升级产生明显的抑制作用。此外,数字经济发展的结构升级效应主要体现在中西部地区,在东部地区并不明显。基于所得实证结果,为促进我国经济结构合理升级演化与数字经济纵深发展提出相关政策建议与参考意见。

The rising and developing digital economy has penetrated into all fields and links of China’s social and economic system, and then has a visual impact on the conventional evolution of the national economic structure.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2011 to 2018,this paper empirically tests the impact of digital economy on the transformation and upgrading of China’s economic structure by using spatial econometric model.The research shows that the development of digital economy can significantly promote the transformation and upgrading of China’s economic structure.The coverage of digital economy and the degree of support services play a positive role in the transformation and upgrading of China’s economic structure, while the depth of the use of digital economy inhibits the transformation and upgrading of economic structure.Further analysis of the transmission mechanism, the development of digital economy mainly promotes the transformation and upgrading of China’s economic structure by affecting the factor structure and industrial structure, while the development of digital economy has an obvious inhibitory effect on the transformation and upgrading of economic structure by acting on the income structure.In addition, the structural upgrading effect of digital economic development is mainly reflected in the central and western regions, but not obvious in the eastern region.Based on the empirical results, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions and reference opinions for promoting the rational upgrading and evolution of China’s economic structure and the in-depth development of digital economy.