管理者能力、宏观经济周期与企业财务危机——基于调节、路径与预警的分析

Managerial Competence,Macroeconomic Cycle and Corporate Financial Crisis——Analysis Based on Regulation,Path and Early Warning

依据管理能力理论与经济周期理论,以沪深主板市场A股为研究对象,综合运用两阶段回归检验、调节效应分析方法,ROC分析方法,探究管理者能力对企业财务危机影响机理及预警能力。结果发现:管理者能力越强,企业陷入财务危机的可能性越小;在宏观经济周期下行时,管理者能力对企业财务危机的影响更明显。进一步研究发现,在宏观经济周期下行时,投资效率存和融资约束存在部分中介效应;在宏观经济周期上行时,投资效率不存在中介效应,融资约束存在部分中介效应。利用ROC曲线进行比较分析,发现加入管理者能力信息的模型,预测准确度得到了显著提升。

Based on management ability theory and business cycle theory,taking the Shanghai and Shenzhen main board market A shares as research object,this paper comprehensively explores the mechanism of managerial ability on corporate financial crisis and early warning ability by two-stage regression test,adjustment effect analysis method,ROC analysis method.Results show that,the stronger the manager's ability,the less likely the enterprise is to fall into a financial crisis.When the macroeconomic cycle is down,the manager^ability has a more obvious impact on the ente^rise^financial crisis,and there is a partial mediation effect in financing constraints.Using the ROC curve for comparison and analysis,it is found that the model with managerial capability information has improved the accuracy of forecasting.