高质量发展阶段中国对外直接投资的创新效应研究——基于逆向技术溢出的视角

The Innovation Effect of China’s Outward Direct Investment at the Stage of High-quality Development: Based on the Perspective of Reverse Technology Spillover

建立涵盖创新效率提升、经济结构优化、生态文明建设、开放稳定共享和人民生活幸福5个子系统36个基础指标的经济发展质量评价体系,采用二次加权的PCA-EM方法测度中国省域经济发展质量;进一步构建面板联立方程模型,分别考察中国对外直接投资(OFDI)对发达经济体、发展中经济体创新能力和经济发展质量的作用机制与效果,深入分析逆向技术溢出对经济发展质量各子系统的创新效应并探讨地区异质性。研究发现,对发达经济体OFDI的逆向技术溢出有利于提升地区创新能力,但对经济发展质量的总体效应为负;对发展中经济体OFDI的逆向技术溢出能够直接促进经济高质量发展;OFDI逆向技术溢出的创新效应存在明显的区域间差异。我国应该优化OFDI结构、采取因地制宜的投资政策、持续增强吸收能力,充分发挥创新对高质量发展的驱动作用。

This paper established an economic development quality evaluation system covering 5 sub-systems and 36basic indicators, including innovation efficiency improvement, economic structure optimization, ecological civilization construction, openness, stability and sharing, and people’s happiness. The PCA-EM method was used to measure China’s provincial economic development quality. The panel simultaneous equation model was further constructed to investigate the effect mechanism and the effect of China’s OFDI for the developed and developing economies on regional innovation capability and economic development quality.This paper also analyzed the reverse technology spillover’s innovation effect on each subsystem and explore regional heterogeneity. The results show that the reverse technology spillovers of OFDI for developed economies are beneficial to improve regional innovation capacity,but the overall effect on the economic development quality is negative. The reverse technology spillover of OFDI for developing economies can directly promote high-quality economic development. There are obvious regional differences in OFDI reverse technology spillovers’ innovation effect. China should optimize its OFDI structure, adopt investment policies tailored to local conditions, enhance its absorptive capacity, and give full play to the driving role of innovation in high-quality development.