基于综合分析法的城市需水预测研究--以贵州省贵安新区为例

Study on urban water demand forecasting based on comprehensive analysis method:case of Gui'an New Area of Guizhou Province

城市需水预测受众多因素的影响,相比利用单一方法进行需水预测,多方法综合预测更能响应多因素的干扰。采用综合分析法预测城市需水,包括资料审查、初步预测、综合预测、需水预测4个阶段。首先,以多种方法对需水定额、社会经济指标等进行预测和检验;其次,采用权重综合评定方法对各种方法进行赋权,并进行相应指标的综合预测;然后,采用传统的定额分析法,对城市需水进行统计;最后,对预测成果进行合理性分析。以贵州省贵安新区为例,预测2020年需水量为20481.9万m^(3),2030年为40902.1万m^(3),经用水总量符合性分析和用水结构合理性分析,预测结果合理。

Urban water demand forecasting is influenced by many factors,and a multi-method integrated forecast can response more to the interference of multiple factors than a single method for water demand forecasting.The ur⁃ban water demand forecasting was carried out by using the integrated analysis method,which included four stages,data review,preliminary forecast,integrated forecast and water demand forecast.Firstly,the water demand quotas and socio-economic indicators,etc.were predicted and tested by various methods;secondly,the weighted compre⁃hensive assessment method was used to assign weights to various methods and make comprehensive forecasts of cor⁃responding indicators;thirdly,the traditional quotas analysis method was used to make statistics on urban water de⁃mand;finally,the forecast result rationality were analyzed.Taking Gui'an New Area in Guizhou Province as an ex⁃ample,the water demand was 204.819 million m^(3) in 2020 and 409.02 million m^(3) in 2030.The analysis of the confor⁃mity of the total water consumption and the rationality analysis of the water consumption structure showed that the prediction results were reasonable.