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大城市交通出行链模型发展路径辨识--以武汉为例

Current and Future Development of Urban Tour-based Model Paradigms and Wuhan exploration
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摘要 为推动和促进城市交通模型由基于出行的四阶段法向基于活动的模型变革,探索面向工程实践切实可行的城市交通模型发展之路,本文首先澄清和界定了出行链、活动链相关概念和模型分类.在深入比较四阶段模型、出行链模型和活动链模型这3种典型建模方法基础上,提出了一种基于集计出行链的模型框架并结合武汉实践探索进行了剖析,最后基于武汉市千万人口、3400余个交通小区和多场景下实证分析,测试了该模型架构的工程实践可行性和先进特性.研究显示:本研究提出的集计出行链模型架构有效弥补了四阶段模型在出行时间维度的缺失,以及方式划分和目的地选择方面内在不一致性,规避了活动链模型在收敛性能、运算效率等方面的应用障碍,且降低了活动建模的复杂度. In order to promote the transformation of urban transportation model from a four-step travel-based approach to an activity-based model,and to explore a practical and feasible urban transportation model development path for engineering practice,this paper first clarifies and defines the travel chain and activity chain related concepts and model classifications.Based on the in-depth comparison of the three typical modeling methods of the four-step model,the travel chain model and the activity chain model,a model framework based on the aggregate travel chain is proposed and analyzed in conjunction with the practical exploration of Wuhan.An empirical analysis is conducted using data from more than 3400 traffic communities and multiple scenarios are tested in terms of the feasibility and advanced features of the model architecture.Research shows that the effectiveness of the aggregate travel chain model architecture proposed in this study compensates for the lack of travel time dimensions of the four-step model,as well as the inherent inconsistencies in mode split and destination selection,and avoids the convergence performance and computational efficiency of the activity chain model.It eliminates obstacles to the application of aspects and reduces the complexity of activity modeling.
作者 郑猛 佘世英 曾浩 李延新 向燕陵 ZHENG Meng;SHE Shiying;ZENG Hao;LI Yanxin;XIANG Yanling(Wuhan Transportation Development Strategy Institute,Wuhan 430017,China;Shenzhen Urban Transport Planning Center Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen 518000,China)
出处 《交通工程》 2022年第2期21-30,共10页 Journal of Transportation Engineering
基金 世行贷款武汉城市圈交通一体化示范项目(P148294)。
关键词 活动链模型 出行链模型 基本出行链 基于出行的四阶段模型 收敛 activity-based model(ABM) tour-based model basic tour trip-basedmodel(4SM) convergence
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