2000-2019年新疆水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调发展研究

Research on the coupling and coordinated development of water-energy-food system in Xinjiang during 2000-2019

水、能源和粮食是区域可持续发展的关键要素。以新疆维吾尔自治区为研究区,构建水-能源-粮食(W-E-F)系统综合评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型和灰色GM(1,1)模型,分析新疆2000-2019年W-E-F系统耦合协调发展水平,并对2020-2031年的耦合协调度进行预测。结果表明:2000-2019年新疆W-E-F系统的综合评价指数由0.39增大至0.61,整体上呈现上升趋势;耦合协调度从0.59增大至0.77,3个子系统之间存在着密切的联系,目前整体表现为中级协调发展水平,并预测在2025年将过渡为高级协调发展阶段。水资源子系统仍是制约W-E-F系统协调发展的关键,农业用水占比过大,导致新疆总体上结构型缺水严重。未来应积极调整用水结构,提高水资源利用效率,优化粮食消费结构,以提升系统内部的协调性。

Water,energy and food are key elements of sustainable regional development.Taking Xinjiang Autonomous Region as the study area,the comprehensive evaluation system of water-energy-food(W-E-F) is constructed.The coupling coordination degree model and the grey GM(1,1)model are adopted to analyze the coupling coordination level of the W-E-F system from 2000 to 2019,and to predict its future development during the period of 2020-2031.The results showed that the comprehensive evaluation index of W-E-F system in Xinjiang rose from 0.39 to 0.61 from 2000 to 2019,showed an overall upward trend;the coupling coordination degree increased from 0.59 to 0.77,and the three subsystems were closely related but the overall performance fell in the intermediate level of coordinated development,which is expected to develop to the advanced level in 2025.Water resources subsystem is still the main factor that restricts the coordinated development of W-E-F system.The large proportion of agricultural water results in the severe structural water shortage in Xinjiang.In the future,Xinjiang should actively adjust the water use structure,improve the utilization efficiency of water resources,optimize the grain consumption structure,and enhance the internal coordination of the system.