AHP-GT耦合模型下煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价

Assessment of coal and gas outburst by AHP-GT combined model

为了更有效地预测煤与瓦斯突出危险性,考虑煤层瓦斯压力、瓦斯放散初速度、煤的坚固性系数、煤的破坏类型和煤层孔隙率5个因素,结合层次分析法(AHP)与灰靶决策模型(GT)建立了煤与瓦斯突出危险评价模型,并通过贵州省的大良田煤矿(DLT)、清河煤矿(QH)、耳海煤矿(EH)、顺发煤矿(SF)、青松煤矿(QS)进行实例验证。结果表明:煤的坚固性系数对煤与瓦斯突出的影响最大,孔隙率对煤与瓦斯突出的影响最小;EH煤矿和SF煤矿属于小的突出危险,DLT煤矿和QS煤矿属于一般突出危险,QH煤矿属于大的突出危险,评价结果与实际情况相符。

In order to predict the risk of coal and gas outburst more effectively,five factors are considered,including coal seam gas pressure,initial gas release velocity,coal firmness coefficient,coal failure type and coal seam porosity.Combined with analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and grey target decision model(GT),the risk evaluation model of coal and gas outburst was established,and verified by five coal mines in Guizhou Province.The results show that the coal firmness coefficient has the greatest impact on coal and gas outburst,and the porosity has the smallest impact on coal and gas outburst.EH Coal Mine and SF Coal Mine are small outburst danger,DLT Coal Mine and QS Coal Mine are general outburst danger,and QH Coal Mine is large outburst danger.The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation.