RCEP签订背景下宁波舟山港货物吞吐量预测

Cargo Throughput Forecast of Ningbo Zhoushan Port under RCEP Signing Background

首先通过文献分析法,从近年来与港口预测有关的研究文献中选取相关的影响因素并进行分析;其次,运用灰关联预测模型对各影响因素进行分析,找到对宁波舟山港货物吞吐量影响较大的影响因素;最后,通过弹性系数法对宁波舟山港未来的货物吞吐量进行预测,对RCEP签订如何影响宁波舟山港的发展进行进一步探究。研究结果表明:对宁波舟山港货物运输吞吐量影响关联和显著影响的因素主要包括非金属矿石、化工原材料及制品、石油和塑料及其他制造商、钢铁和其他重要金属矿石;预计2021-2025年期间宁波舟山港的货物吞吐量每年上涨均超过3%,外贸吞吐量每年上涨均超过5%。

Firstly,through literature analysis,relevant influencing factors were selected and analyzed from the research literature related to port prediction in recent years.Secondly,the grey correlation prediction model was adopted to analyze the influencing factors and find the influencing factors on the cargo throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan port.Finally,the future cargo throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan port was predicted by the elastic coefficient method,and how the signing of RCEP affected the development of Ningbo Zhoushan port was further explored.The results showed that non-metallic minerals,chemical raw materials and products,oil and plastics and other manufacturers,steel and other important metal ores were the main factors affecting the freight transport throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan port.It was expected that the cargo throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan port would increase by more than 3% annually from 2021 to 2025,and the foreign trade throughput would increase by more than 5% annually.