贸易网络中心性对跨国直接投资的影响研究——基于全球市场的经验数据

A Study on the Impact of Trade Network Centrality on Cross-Border Direct Investment——Empirical Data from Global Markets

基于1990—2019年全球131个国家(地区)的进出口贸易及GDP等数据构建贸易网络中心性测度指标,以此衡量不同国家在全球贸易网络中的地位和动态关系,并考察贸易网络中心性对各国跨国直接投资的影响。实证检验发现:全球贸易网络结构呈现“多中心”动态趋稳定的发展特征;贸易网络中心性对跨国直接投资净流入存在显著的抑制作用,这种抑制作用在次贷危机前,或在贸易网络中心区的国家尤为突出。通过机制检验进一步发现,人力资本成本、最低工资水平和产业结构调整,是贸易网络中心性对跨国资本净流入抑制作用的重要渠道。

This paper constructs a measure of trade network centrality based on the import and export trade and GDP of 131 countries(regions)from 1990 to 2019 to measure the status and relationship of different countries in the global trade network,and to examine the impact of trade network centrality on cross-border direct investment in each country.The empirical test finds that:firstly,the global trade network structure is characterized by"polycentric"development,and the global trade network structure is relatively stable;secondly,the centrality of trade network has a suppressive effect on the net inflow of cross-border FDI,and the suppressive effect of the centrality of trade network on the net inflow of cross-border FDI is more prominent in developed countries than in developing countries.The inhibitory effect is more pronounced in all countries(regions)after the financial crisis than before the financial crisis;third,the mechanism test finds that the inhibitory effect of trade network centrality on net cross-border capital inflows is achieved through the channels of raising the minimum wage,enhancing human capital and optimizing the domestic industrial structure.The findings of this paper provide a reference for how China can maintain and expand its existing trade network status and relationships,optimize the structure of China's outward FDI,and then improve its foreign reform and opening-up policies and achieve a higher level of open economy.