产业集聚对于中国省域碳排放的影响及空间效应分析

An Analysis of The Impact of Industrial Agglomeration on Provincial Carbon Emissions in China and Spatial Effect

产业集聚一直是与经济发展、环境问题紧密联系的重要因素。在当下中国努力达到碳达峰、碳中和目标的大背景下,探索产业集聚与碳排放之间的关系尤为关键,而且碳排放和产业集聚本身存在的空间相关性也不容忽视。基于STIRPAT模型随机扩展的思想,引入空间相关性,构建了碳排放与产业集聚的空间误差模型。通过分析中国2007—2019年省域面板数据,得出以下结论:碳排放确实存在空间溢出效应,碳排放强度的“高-高”聚集区主要出现在我国西部省份,“低-低”聚集区则主要出现在我国东部发达省份;产业集聚对于碳排放的影响呈动态的“N”型趋势。

Industrial agglomeration is an important factor that has been closely linked with economic development and environmental problems.In the context of China's government promises to achieve Carbon Peak by 2030s and Carbon Neutrality by 2060s,it is particularly critical to explore the relationship between industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions,moreover,the spatial correlation between them cannot be ignored.Therefore,on the basis of the stochastic extension of STIRPAT model and the introduction of spatial factors into the analysis framework,the Spatial Error Model(SEM)of carbon emissions and industrial agglomeration is constructed.On the analysis of the provincial panel dataset from 2007 to 2019 in China,the following conclusions are drawn.Firstly,spatial spillover effect of provincial carbon emissions is verified in China.Furthermore,"high-high"clusters of carbon emission intensity mainly located in the West China,"low-low"clusters mainly occur in the East China.Secondly,the influence of industrial agglomeration on carbon emission shows a nonlinear N-shaped trend.Therefore,it is suggested that regional collaborative governance mechanism of carbon emission reduction should be established as soon as possible,and regional differentiated industrial policies should be formulated according to the different stage of industrial agglomeration.