输入型通货膨胀的结构性传导与行业异质性

The Structural Transmission and Industry Heterogeneity of Imported Inflation

本文运用我国37个工业大类行业PPI数据构建TVP-SV-FAVAR模型,实证研究了输入型通货膨胀在不同发展阶段、上下游价格、不同类型行业传导的结构性特征及其行业异质性。研究结果发现,国际大宗商品价格对我国PPI和CPI均产生了影响,我国存在输入型通货膨胀压力。输入型通货膨胀的传导强度从上游行业到下游行业依次递减,对能源资源密集型行业的传导强度最大,其中上游能源开采类行业的传导系数最高,对资本技术密集型行业的传导强度次之,对劳动密集型行业的传导强度较弱。输入型通货膨胀更多向生产环节传导,向流通环节的传导强度弱化,但是会推升流通环节成本降低企业利润。输入型通货膨胀的传导具有明显的顺周期和“易涨难跌”特征,在国际大宗商品价格的上涨阶段的传导强度最大,在平稳阶段的传导强度次之,在下跌阶段的传导强度最弱。我国经济在需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力以及大宗商品价格高位运行背景下,政策调控应把握好输入型通货膨胀传导的结构性特征,据此开展分类调控、精准调控、依时调控,综合平衡“稳增长”和“防通胀”目标,着力稳定宏观经济大盘。

Based on the PPI data of 37 industrial categories in China,this paper employed a TVP-SV-FAVAR model to study the structural characteristics and industry heterogeneity of imported inflation in different development stages,upstream and downstream prices,and different types of industries.The results show that international commodity prices have an impact on China’s PPI and CPI,and there is imported inflationary pressure in China.The transmission intensity of input inflation decreases from upstream to downstream industries,and the transmission intensity of input inflation is the largest in energy and resource-intensive industries.The transmission intensity of input inflation is the highest in upstream energy mining industries,followed by capital and technology-intensive industries,and the transmission intensity of input inflation is weak in labor-intensive industries.Imported inflation is more transmitted to the production link,while the transmission intensity to the circulation link is weakened,but it will push up the cost of the circulation link and reduce corporate profits.The transmission of imported inflation is obviously pro-cyclical and“easy to rise but difficult to fall”.The transmission strength of international commodity prices is the largest in the rising stage,the second in the stable stage,and the weakest in the falling stage.Our economic contract in demand and supply shocks,expected weaker triple pressure and commodity prices high background,policy should hold good structural features of imported inflation conduction,thus carry out classification control,precise control,in accordance with the regulation,comprehensive balance“steady growth”and“inflation”goal,focus on macroeconomic market stability.