港口气象服务进展及其效益评估技术研究

Research Progress on the Port Meteorological Service in View of Benefit Assessment

为提高港口服务质量和促进港口经济发展,文章基于国内外港口气象服务的发展现状,通过降低灾害风险和延长作业时间评估宁波舟山港的港口气象服务效益,并提出定制式港口气象服务的必要性和技术路线。研究结果表明:降低灾害风险可从致灾因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性2个方面分析,其中致灾因子危险性指数总体呈下降趋势,承灾体脆弱性指数随重现期的增大而快速上升;提供针对性港口气象服务后的港口作业时间不断延长,作业时间延长效益每年可达数亿元且会进一步提高;定制式港口气象服务须关注需求引领、专属产品、综合平台和高效机制。

Based on the status of port meteorological service at home and abroad,the benefits of meteorological service for Zhoushan Port,Ningbo,were evaluated through disaster risk reduction and operation time extension,furthermore,the importance of customized meteorological service of ports and technology road map were put forward in this paper in order to improve the quality of meteorological service and promote the development of port economy.Disaster risk reduction was analyzed from the risk of potential disaster-causing factors and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies.The intensity of disaster-causing factors generally showed a decreasing trend,and the vulnerability index increased rapidly with the increase of the return period.The operation time had been continuously extended with targeted meteorological services,generating benefits of up to hundreds of millions of yuan each year.Customized meteorological service should focus on demand leading,exclusive products,integrated platform,and efficient mechanism.