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双层博弈视角下中美经贸摩擦走势及应对策略分析 被引量:3

Analysis on the Trend and Countermeasures of Sino-US Economic and Trade Frictions from the Perspective of Two-tier Game
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摘要 特朗普政府执政后,中美贸易摩擦演变为对华科技、政治军事、教育文化等各个领域的“脱钩”,拜登上台后基本延续特朗普政府的对华政策。此次美国对华“脱钩”与以往小范围经贸摩擦不同,其根本原因在于:美国对华政策转向、大国地位周期性变化、反全球化运动及民粹运动兴起和防范中国抓住第四次工业革命的历史机遇。在美国对华“脱钩”根本原因发生变化的背景下,双方博弈的初始条件与以往有很大区别,有必要基于新的背景和现实条件科学动态地判断中美经贸摩擦走向和中国的最优应对策略。本文试图在双层博弈理论的指导下分析上述问题。在信息不完全假设下,建立一个双层动态博弈模型,并以此模型为分析框架,判断中美博弈的可能走向;以及在动态博弈环境中,中国在中短期和长期内的不同应对策略。中短期内,美国遏制中国高质量发展权利的目标价值不会变化,中国需在精准回击的同时,减少对美国市场和技术的依赖,进一步打破传统发展路径依赖,依靠科技创新发展国家竞争力,加快形成国内国际“双循环”发展格局。长期来看,当美国自身经济受到“脱钩”的影响时,美国国内反对“脱钩”声音壮大,美国遏制中国高质量发展权利的目标价值变化,中方需根据美国“脱钩”政策变化实时调整应对方案。 The Sino-US trade friction launched by the Trump government has evolved into“decoupling”in various fields such as science and technology,politics and military,education and culture with China.After Biden took office,Trump government’s China policy was basically continued.The“decoupling”of the United States from China is different from previous small-scale economic and trade frictions.The fundamental reasons are the shift of the United States policy towards China,the periodic change of the status of a major power,the rise of the anti-globalization movement and populist movement,and the prevention of China from seizing the historical opportunity of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.In the context of changes in the fundamental reasons for the“decoupling”of the United States from China,the initial conditions of the game between the two sides are very different from those in the past.It is necessary to scientifically and dynamically judge the trend of Sino-US economic and trade frictions and China’s optimal response based on the new background and realistic conditions.This paper attempts to analyze the above problems under the guidance of the two-tier game theory.Under the assumption of incomplete information,a two-tier dynamic game model is established.Taking this model as the analytical framework,this paper puts forward the possible trends of the game between China and the United States,and China’s different coping strategies and suggestions in the short and medium term and in the long term in the dynamic game environment.In the short and medium term,the target value of the United States to curb China’s right to high-quality development will not change.China needs to fight back accurately,reduce its dependence on the U.S.market and technology,further break the traditional dependence on the development path,rely on scientific and technological innovation to develop national competitiveness,and accelerate the formation of a domestic and international“double cycle”development pattern.In the long run,when the U.S.economy is affected by“decoupling”,the voice of the American people against“decoupling”grows,and due to the change of the target value of the United States to curb China’s right to high-quality development,China needs to adjust its response plan in real time according to the change of the U.S.policy of“decoupling”.
作者 杨立卓 罗姗姗 吴凡 刘欣 YANG Li-zhuo;LUO Shan-shan;WU Fan;LIU Xin(School of Economics,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;Academic Journal Agency,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;Construction Promotion Center of the Belt and Road Initiative,National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100824,China;Tehua Postdoctoral Programme,Beijing 100029,China)
出处 《重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版)》 2022年第3期136-148,共13页 Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University:Social Science Edition
基金 国家社科基金一般项目(21BGL050)“一带一路”沿线国家涉华新闻报道对中国对外直接投资效率的影响研究 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(19YJCGJW015)“双层演化博弈视角下中美经贸摩擦的成因、走向及对策研究”。
关键词 脱钩 双层博弈 门槛成本 不完全信息 decoupling two-tier game threshold cost incomplete information
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