全球海域油气开发形势与展望

Development situation of global offshore oil and gas and its prospect

全球海域油气剩余经济可采储量近80%在浅海,超过一半在中东波斯湾海域;浅水海域贡献了全球油气产量的1/3;海域多达67%的油气田处于二次采油阶段;深水、超深水油气开发实际成本明显低于浅水油气开发成本。随着国际油价的回暖和攀升,预期海域新投产油气田数量和油气产量将逐步回暖;海域油气开发活动由浅水向深水和超深水海域不断拓展;海域油气实际开发成本与保本价均降至历史最低水平。未来5年,全球海域的开发投资将带动海域油气产量迎来新的增长,海域油气开发的景气度有望进一步提升。建议抓住中亚局势动荡、国际石油公司退出海域油气资产的机会,适时介入中亚滨里海海域天然气业务,获取更多优质的海域油气资产。

Nearly 80% of the global offshore petroleum remaining commercial recoverable reserves are in shallow water and more than half are in the Persian Gulf of the Middle East.Shallow water areas account for 1/3 of global oil and gas production and up to 67% of oil and gas fields in the area are in the secondary recovery stage.The actual cost of deepwater and ultra-deepwater oil and gas development is significantly lower than that of shallow water oil and gas development.With the recovery and the rise of the international oil prices,it is expected that the amount of new fields and petroleum production in offshore will be gradually recovered,the offshore petroleum development activities have been expanding from shallow water to deepwater and ultra-deepwater,and the offshore real development cost and breakeven oil price have fallen to the lowest level in history.In the next five years,the offshore petroleum production will be driven to a new growth with the increasing of the investment in the offshore development drillings and the prosperity of the offshore petroleum development is expected to be further improved.It is suggested to seize the opportunity of the turbulent situation in Central Asia and the withdrawal of international oil companies from offshore oil and gas assets,and timely intervene in the natural gas business in the Caspian Sea area of Central Asia to acquire more high-quality offshore oil and gas assets.