全球天然气市场2021年回顾及2022年展望

Review of global gas market in 2021 and prospect for 2022

在经济复苏以及能源低碳转型的推动下,全球天然气需求稳步增长,天然气市场维持供应偏紧态势。2021年北美、欧洲和亚太三大天然气市场价格屡创新高,天然气成为全球最贵的一次能源,夏季价格低点和冬季价格高点提前到来,欧洲天然气TTF价格引领亚太天然气JKM价格,LNG运输市场波动剧烈。展望2022年,全球天然气需求将继续增长,供应偏紧态势有望得到改善,但地缘政治风险使得供应端具有一定不确定性。2021年中国成为全球第一大LNG进口国,2022年中国天然气需求继续保持高增长,天然气供应保持稳定增长,天然气进口也将继续增长,增量主要来自长期合同。在碳达峰碳中和目标下,中国应坚持LNG进口资源多元化发展,加快LNG接收站基础设施建设,进一步保障能源供应安全和低碳经济发展。

Driven by economic recovery and low-carbon energy transition,global natural gas demand has grown steadily and the gas supply has maintained tight.In 2021,gas prices in North America,Europe and Asia-Pacific surged to record highs and natural gas became the most expensive primary energy in the world.The relatively lower gas prices in summer and winter peak prices arrived earlier than usual.It also showed the trend that European TTF to some extent led the Asia-Pacific JKM price.Moreover,LNG transportation market demonstrated drastic volatility.Looking ahead,global gas demand will sustain growth,and the tight supply situation is expected to ease,but geopolitical risks will make the supply side uncertainly.In 2021,China became the world’s largest LNG importer.In 2022,China’s gas demand is expected to maintain high growth,gas supply will improve stably,gas imports will continue to increase,and the incremental mainly come from long-term contracts.Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,China should adhere to the diversification of LNG import sources,accelerate the infrastructure construction of LNG terminals,and further ensure energy supply security and low-carbon economic development.