亚太地区能源转型前景分析

The prospect of energy transformation in Asia-Pacific region

亚太各国受国家经济发展水平、能源结构和政策不同影响,能源转型的目标、进程和发展前景存在明显差异。进一步降低煤炭在发电结构中的占比是中国能源清洁化进程中的首要任务。未来相当长一段时间印度对煤炭发电的需求还会增加。相对于欧盟国家、英国等发达国家,澳大利亚的减排承诺明显不足。新西兰长期关注气候问题并积极采取措施应对气候变化,新西兰承诺到2030年实现100%可再生能源发电。东盟地区高碳能源占比较高,清洁能源开发进展缓慢。澳大利亚、日本、韩国等国将率先实现碳中和目标,中国和印度尼西亚次之,泰国和印度较晚。制约亚太地区能源转型的因素主要体现在电力行业清洁化程度、可再生能源行业资金支持及发电成本的长期竞争力等方面。整体看,亚太地区短期内将保持对化石燃料尤其是煤炭的高度依赖,天然气和可再生能源将在该地区能源转型中发挥长期的重要作用。

Affected by national economic development levels,energy structures,and policies,there are obvious differences in the energy transformation objectives,processes,and development prospects among the Asian-Pacific countries.Reducing the proportion of coal in power generation structure is the primary task in China and the demand for coal power generation in India will increase for a long time.Compared with such developed countries as the EU and the UK,the emission reduction commitments of Australia are still obviously insufficient.New Zealand has paid attention to climate issues for a long time,actively taken measures to deal with climate change,and is committed to achieving 100% renewable energy power generation by 2030.High carbon energy accounts for a relatively high proportion in the ASEAN region,and the development of clean energy has developed slowly.Countries such as Australia,Japan,and South Korea will lead in achieving carbon neutrality,followed by China and Indonesia,and finally Thailand and India.The factors restricting the energy transformation in the Asia-Pacific region mainly include the cleanliness of the power industry,the financial support of the renewable energy industry,and the long-term competitiveness of power generation costs.Overall,the Asia-Pacific region will be highly dependent on fossil fuels,especially coal in the short term,and both of natural gas and renewable energy will play a long-term important role in the energy transformation in the region.