《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》成员国油气资源与炼油业现状及展望

Status and prospect of oil & gas resources and refining in RCEP member countries

2022年1月1日,《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)正式生效。RCEP区域油气资源较为丰富,主要分布在东盟地区及大洋洲地区,以天然气为主。已发现油气资源主要位于南海、印度尼西亚周边海域以及澳大利亚西北部海域。近年来,东盟地区油气储量总体呈下降趋势,大洋洲地区油气储量分别保持稳中略升、稳中略减态势,预计未来这两个地区的油气储量将呈递减趋势。预计2022-2030年东盟地区石油产量将继续下滑,大洋洲地区先降后升;东盟地区天然气产量小幅下降,大洋洲先抑后扬。以国际石油公司为主的外国公司在RCEP区域油气上游领域的参与程度较高,部分国际石油公司在一些资源国占主导地位。RCEP区域炼油工业发展不平衡,新加坡、韩国和日本炼油工业发达,其他国家炼油工业大多发展缓慢,炼油设施陈旧老化。长期看,东盟多国都有炼油设施技术升级改造以及新建炼厂需求,该地区炼油工业有着较大的提升空间;市场竞争压力使得大洋洲地区炼油工业难有新的发展空间。

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into effect on January 1,2022.RCEP region is quite rich in oil and gas resources,which mainly include natural gas,mainly distributed in ASEAN and Oceania.The discovered oil and gas resources are mainly located in the South China Sea,the offshore of Indonesia,and northwest Australia.In recent years,the oil and gas reserves in ASEAN region generally shows a downward trend,while the oil and gas reserves in Oceania region keeps a steady and slightly rising trend and a steady and slightly decreasing trend respectively.It is predicted that the oil and gas reserves in these two areas will show a decreasing trend in the future.Considering various factors,it is predicted that the oil production in ASEAN will continue to decline from 2022 to 2030,while that in Oceania will first fall and then rise.Natural gas production in ASEAN will decrease slightly,while that in Oceania will decrease first and then increase.Foreign companies,mainly international oil companies,have a high degree of participation in the upstream field of oil and gas in RCEP region,and some international oil companies are dominant in some resource countries.The development of refining industry in RCEP region is unbalanced,for example,Singapore,South Korea and Japan have developed refining industries,while most of the refining industries in other countries are developing slowly.In the long run,most ASEAN countries have the urgent need to upgrade and modify technology of the existing facilities and build new plants.The regions’ oil refining industry has greater room for improvement but the pressure of competition leave little development room for refinery industry in Oceania region.