全球碳中和液化天然气贸易发展趋势及影响

The development trend and impact of global carbon-neutral LNG trade

在全球气候治理目标及能源企业碳减排目标的共同驱动下,2019年以来,碳中和液化天然气(LNG)贸易逐渐兴起,并成为全球天然气贸易新业态。截至2021年9月,全球范围内碳中和LNG贸易共24船。由于碳排放的抵消方式不同,碳中和LNG成本存在较大差异,其价格将较常规LNG高出17%~37%。未来全球碳中和LNG贸易需求将稳健增长,碳中和LNG中长期协议或逐渐增加,油气企业或将碳中和LNG货物抵消范围扩展至甲烷,碳中和LNG成本传导机制将逐步建立。碳中和LNG贸易将对全球天然气市场带来影响:推动天然气行业碳减排,助力天然气产业可持续发展;LNG产业链碳排放报告制度将更加严格;或催生“碳中和管道气”贸易新模式。

Since 2019,carbon-neutral LNG trade has gradually sprung up and become a new business form of global natural gas trade driven by the global climate governance goals and the carbon emission reduction goals of energy enterprises.By September 2021,there were 24 cargoes traded globally for carbon-neutral LNG.Carbon-neutral LNG costs more to produce and sell than conventional LNG,and the price of carbon-neutral LNG is 17% to 37% higher than conventional LNG.In the future,the global demand for carbon-neutral LNG trade will grow steadily,the medium and long-term agreements of carbon-neutral LNG may increase gradually,oil and gas enterprises may expand the offset range of carbon-neutral LNG goods to methane,and the transmission mechanism of carbon-neutral LNG cost premium will be gradually established.Carbon-neutral LNG trade will have several impacts on the global natural gas market,such as promoting carbon reduction in the natural gas industry and helping the sustainable development of natural gas.The carbon emission reporting system of LNG industry chain will be more stringent and may give birth to a new trade model of “carbon-neutral pipeline gas”.