中国在利比亚油气合作前景分析

Analysis on the prospect of China’s oil and gas cooperation in Libya

利比亚作为北非地区重要的石油资源国,对中国构建海外油气合作新基地以及保障国家能源安全具有一定意义。利比亚政治局势错综复杂,外部势力深入介入。近期,利比亚将迎来总统和议会选举,东部武装势力与西部政权之间权力争夺有望达成平衡,有利于局势稳定,预计未来利比亚再次陷入大乱的可能性较小,合作机遇显现。利比亚油气资源丰富,勘探开发程度低,急需外资发展油气行业。鉴于利比亚政局趋稳,国内经济复苏需要大量外资,建议中国企业做好重返预案,帮助其战后经济重建。已有多个国际石油公司重返利比亚并加强合作,也是中国油气公司进入利比亚的好时机。但在利比亚的合作面临局部地区安全风险、内部势力矛盾和金融环境较差等方面的挑战。建议争取外交层面支持,处理好各方关系,深入开展投资环境调研,寻求油气勘探开发合作机会。

As an important oil resource country in North Africa,Libya is of significance to establish oil and gas cooperation foundation and ensure China’s energy security in the overseas.However,the political situation in Libya is complicated,and external forces are deeply involved.Recently,Libya will hold presidential and parliamentary elections,and the power struggle between the armed forces and the regime in the west is expected to reach a balance,which is conducive to the stability of the situation.It is expected that Libya will be less likely to fall into chaos again in the future,and cooperation opportunities will emerge.Libya is rich in oil and gas resources with low level of exploration and development and is in urgent need of foreign investment to develop oil and gas industry.In view of Libya’s political stability and the need for a large amount of foreign investment for domestic economic recovery,it is suggested that Chinese enterprises would make plans to return to Libya to help its post-war economic reconstruction.In addition,a number of international oil companies have returned to Libya and strengthened cooperation,which offers a good opportunity for Chinese oil and gas companies’ returning back.However,cooperation in Libya is challenged by local security risks,internal conflicts,and poor financial environment.Therefore,the paper proposes to seek diplomatic support,properly handle all relations,and conduct in-depth research on the investment environment,to strive for cooperation opportunities in oil and gas exploration and development.