基于SBM-Tobit模型的中国农业生态效率时空差异及影响因素研究

Spatial-temporal Differences and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Eco-efficiency in China Based on SBM-Tobit Model

应用SBM模型测算我国31个省份2010—2019年的农业生态效率并分析其时空差异;结合投入产出冗余率分析效率损失的原因,采用Tobit模型分析效率的影响因素。结果表明:2010—2019年各省份效率平均值为0.7993,达到最优水平的省份仅有10个,未达到最优水平的省份有21个,且整体呈现“东高西低”的格局,说明我国农业生态效率整体水平较低、空间发展不平衡。从投入产出冗余角度看,我国农业生态效率水平较低的原因是灌溉、农药、化肥、农膜等要素投入过量与非期望产出较多;从影响因素看,工业化水平、机械密度、财政支农水平和农村居民人均可支配收入对农业生态效率产生负向影响,而灌溉率和农业总产值有利于提升农业生态效率。基于此,从投入产出冗余率和影响因素两个角度提出了相应措施,以期改善我国农业生态效率水平,实现农业的可持续发展。

SBM model was used to calculate the agricultural eco-efficiency of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019 and analyze the temporal and spatial differences.Combined with input-output redundancy rate,the reasons for efficiency loss were analyzed,and Tobit model was used to analyze the influencing factors of efficiency.The results show that from 2010 to 2019,the average efficiency of each province is 0.7993,only 10 provinces reached the optimal level,and 21 provinces have not reached the optimal level,and the overall pattern is′high in the east and low in the west′,indicating that the overall level of agricultural eco-efficiency in China is low and the spatial development is unbalanced.From the perspective of input-output redundancy,the reason for the low level of agricultural eco-efficiency in China is that the input of irrigation,pesticide,chemical fertilizer,agricultural film and other factors are too much and the unexpected output is too much.From the perspective of influencing factors,industrialization level,machinery density,financial support for agriculture and per capita disposable income of rural residents have a negative impact on agricultural eco-efficiency,while irrigation rate and agricultural gross output value are conducive to improving agricultural eco-efficiency.Based on this,the corresponding measures were put forward from 2 perspectives of input-output redundancy rate and influencing factors,in order to improve the level of agricultural ecological efficiency and achieve sustainable development of agriculture in China.