基于电力供应链博弈的可再生能源政策效应研究

Research on Effects of Renewable Energy Policy Based on Power Supply Chain Game

可再生能源配额制(简称配额制)是当前中国可再生能源政策由固定溢价补贴制向政府政策与市场机制共同作用过渡的目标机制。随着电力体制改革不断深化,可再生能源政策将直接影响电力供应链主体博弈行为,造成不同的政策效应。鉴于此,考虑以消费端为配额义务考核主体并引入惩罚函数,构建包含发电企业、消费端在内的两级电力供应链纳什均衡博弈模型。该模型设置了3种政策情景:固定溢价补贴制、配额制和2种政策并行双轨制。通过算例仿真重点分析配额、罚金参数变化对配额制下各博弈主体最优交易电量和绿证价格的影响。考虑到政策的福利效应,比较了3种政策情景下社会福利差异。结果表明:配额制下可再生能源交易电量和绿证价格随配额的增加呈现先递增后递减趋势,随罚金参数的增大而增大;3种政策情景下社会福利函数关于配额的增加呈现倒“U”型分布;随着可再生能源市场份额增长,2种政策并行双轨制下的社会福利水平优于2种政策单独实施下的福利水平。

The renewable portfolio standards(RPS)are the target mechanism for the transition of China’s current renewable energy policy from the feed-in premium(FIP)to the combined action of government policies and market mechanisms.With the deepening of power system reform,renewable energy policy directly influences the game behavior of power supply chain subjects,resulting in different policy effects.Therefore,we assume the consumer side as the assessment subject of quota obligations and introduce a penalty function,and a two-level Nash equilibrium game model for the power supply chain is constructed,including the power generation side and the consumer side.The model sets three policy scenarios,i.e.,FIP,RPS,and the parallel dual-track system of the two policies,and numerical simulations focus on analyzing the impact of quota and penalty parameter changes on the optimal power transaction volumes of each game subject and the price of the green certificate under RPS.Additionally,considering the welfare effect of policies,the differences in social welfare under three policy scenarios are compared.The results indicate that under RPS,the power transaction volume of renewable energy and the price of the green certificate increase initially and decrease afterward as the quota grows and increase as the penalty parameter rises.Under three policy scenarios,the social welfare function presents inverted U-shaped distribution with the increase in quotas.As the market share of renewable energy grows,the level of social welfare under the parallel dual-track system of the two policies is better than that under the implementation of the two policies separately.