交通密集水域安全风险演化脆弱性分析

Vulnerability analysis of safety risk evolution in traffic-intensive waters

交通密集水域事故频发,为揭示其安全风险演化规律,明确风险监控重点,以长江口水域为例进行了交通安全风险演化脆弱性分析。基于该水域交通事故案例,运用事件链分析技术构建了安全风险演化网络并解析其拓扑特性;提出了安全风险演化脆弱性概念,运用MATLAB仿真技术进行了定量评价;提出了一种关键脆弱因素辨识方法,并以演化网络为例验证了其可行性。结果表明:长江口水域交通安全风险极易传播扩散,少数关键因素失控易导致交通事故;船员违规违章、船员不合格不适任、强潮汐急潮流等风险因素对该水域交通安全风险演化起到关键作用。研究表明,提出的辨识方法合理可行,可适用于其他交通密集水域,为海事部门精准防控关键风险提供理论依据。

This paper aims to reveal the evolution law of safety risk and clarify the key points of safety risk monitoring in traffic-intensive waters.The vulnerability analysis of safety risk evolution was carried out by taking the Yangtze River estuary as an example.Based on 81 traffic accident cases in this water,the safety risk evolution network in the Yangtze River estuary was constructed by using event chain analysis technology.Its topological characteristics were then analyzed by using the complex network theory.The concept of safety risk evolution vulnerability in traffic-intensive waters was proposed.Two indexes of network connectivity loss and efficiency loss were used to quantify it in the safety risk evolution network by using MATLAB simulation technology.A key vulnerability factor identification method of safety risk in traffic-intensive waters based on Cobb-Douglas function was proposed.The feasibility of this method was verified by comparison with node importance model and comprehensive centrality model according to the safety risk evolution network.The results show that the traffic safety risk evolution network in the Yangtze River estuary has the characteristics of small world and scale-free.It has low vulnerability under random attack and high vulnerability under deliberate attack.The traffic safety risk in this water is easy to spread,and a few key factors out of control are easy to lead to traffic accidents.The risk factors such as crew violation,crew disqualification and incompetence,strong tide and current play a key role in the evolution of traffic safety risk in this water.The key control of them will help to prevent the risk evolution and curb traffic accidents.The proposed key vulnerability factor identification method is reasonable and feasible.It can be applied to other traffic-intensive waters,provide a theoretical basis for the maritime department to accurately prevent and control key risks.