考虑风险的成品油道路运输路径优化

Research on the optimization of road transportation route for refined oil products considering risk

为研究成品油道路运输路径优化问题,建立了优化目标指标体系,通过专家打分和层次分析法确定各指标权重,在此基础上,增加对运输风险的考虑,分析事故率和运载量影响下的事故后果。将成本和风险的加权值最小化作为优化目标,构建了成品油道路运输路径优化模型。以延长壳牌石油有限公司的运输业务为例,收集处理事故率、人口密度、环境特性等数据,并通过遗传算法对优化模型进行求解,得到最优运输路径。结果表明,建立的模型和选取的算法是有效的,优化后的风险成本和目标值较优化前分别减小了22%和21%,在安全性和经济性方面都有较为明显的提升。

This paper intends to find out the optimal distribution route for road transportation of refined oil products.Firstly,a target index system for optimizing road transportation routes for refined oil products was established,and the weight coefficient of each index was determined through the expert scoring method.Then,the transportation risks were introduced based on the existing refined oil distribution problems,and the accident rate and the cause of the accident were analyzed.Besides,it considered the influence of carrier changes on accident consequences and established a leakage accident rate model,the casualty model,and the environmental damage model.Secondly,the minimization of the weighted value of cost and risk was regarded as the optimization goal.The optimization model of the road transportation route of refined oil was conducted and it was analyzed by using a genetic algorithm.Finally,the transportation business of the Shell Petroleum Co.,Ltd.was used as an example,and data was collected by data such as accident,population density,environmental characteristics,and Matlab software was used to calculate the optimization model through a genetic algorithm to obtain the optimal transportation route.The results show that the accident consequence model and the risk model can better describe the actual situation of road transportation of refined oil;the research ideas that take into account transportation risks and transportation costs in a balanced way can also better meet the requirements of road transportation for refined oil.Oil transportation companies have certain reference significance when choosing road transportation routes;the established models and selected algorithms are effective,and the optimized route can reduce risks and costs.In terms of economy and safety,both have been significantly improved.