陕西省CH_(4)排放量计算与情景预测分析

Calculation and scenario prediction analysis of CH_(4) emissions in Shaanxi Province

基于IPCC指南提供的清单编制方法,从能源活动、农业活动和废弃物处理3个方面对陕西省2000—2018年甲烷(CH_(4))排放量进行估算,并采用情景分析法预测不同情景下陕西省2019—2030年CH_(4)排放量及变化趋势。结果表明:2000—2018年陕西省CH_(4)排放量总体呈波动上升趋势,由2000年74.01万t增长到2018年646.55万t,增长了7.74倍。能源活动是陕西省CH_(4)最大的排放源,且排放量逐年增多。2030年基准、优化和严格减排情况下,陕西省CH_(4)排放量分别为791.33万t、732.45万t和656.85万t,且基准、优化情景下CH_(4)排放量呈逐年增长趋势;而严格减排情景下CH_(4)排放量在2027年达到峰值,为658.76万t。为满足中国2030年前实现碳达峰这一目标,严格减排情景较其他情景更适合陕西省未来CH_(4)排放发展趋势。

Based on the list of preparation methods provided by IPCC Guidance,this paper estimates the emission of CH_(4)in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2018 from three aspects i.e.energy activities,agricultural activities,and waste disposal.Besides,the scenario analysis method is adopted to predict the emission of CH_(4)in Shaanxi from 2019 to 2030 and its variation trends under different backgrounds.The result shows that(1)the emission of CH_(4)in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2018 generally fluctuated in a rising trend as it increased by 7.74 times from 74.01×10;t in 2000 to 646.55×10;t in 2018 with an average annual growth rate of 13%.(2)Energy activities were the largest source of CH_(4)emission in Shaanxi Province and its emission increased from 36.32×10;t in 2000 to 595.39×10;t in 2018 with the proportion increasing from 49.07%in 2000 to 92.08%in 2018.Emission of CH_(4)from agricultural activities increased gradually from 2000 to 2006 and was influenced by the weather in 2006.The number of non-dairy cows slaughtered was larger and the stock of non-dairy cows dropped sharply in 2007,which led to the sharp decrease in CH_(4)emission from agricultural activities from 2007 to 2018.CH_(4)released from agricultural activities fluctuated up and down and then tended to be stable and the emission proportion was decreasing year by year from 45.16%in 2000 to 4.36%in 2018.The emission from waste disposal did not change greatly from 5.77%in 2000 slightly decreasing to 3.56%in 2018,which was the smallest source of CH_(4)emission.(3)From 2019 to 2030,CH_(4)emission in Shaanxi Province will be the highest under the baseline scenario,lower under the scenario of optimization,and the lowest under the scenario of strict reduction of emission and the above scenarios.Energy activities are still the largest source of CH_(4)in Shaanxi Province.Under the scenarios of baseline and optimization,the emission of CH_(4)will increase year by year but under the scenario of strict reduction of emission,the emission of CH_(4)will peak in 2027 at 658.76×10;t.To satisfy China’s target of peaking carbon emissions in 2030,strict reduction of emission is more suitable according to the CH_(4)emission trends in the future in Shaanxi Province.