基于SEM的高超声速飞行器使用能力评估模型

Research on the combat capability evaluation model of hypersonic vehicles based on Structural Equation Model

高超声速飞行器使用能力评估是武器装备开展作战试验、实施效能论证和作战使用保障的一项基础性工作。由于高超声速飞行器面临力、热、控制等一系列挑战,评估和量化采用的新技术、新工艺、新方法对系统完成预期使命任务和效果的影响难度较大。本文首先借鉴效能评估领域的常用方法给出问题定义,建立评估问题的指标体系,并基于结构方程模型(SEM)的方法构建了反映能力指标与技术指标关系的结构方程模型;其次,利用AMOS软件得到结构方程参数估计值;最后,进行算例评估与验证分析。结果表明,该方法为此类飞行器使用能力评估提供了一种可行的思路,能够较全面地评估新技术对能力指标的影响,对军队未来武器系统的研制和使用也具有一定参考价值。

Evaluating the combat capability of hypersonic vehicles is fundamental for weapon system develop‐ment demonstration,combat test development and combat support.Hypersonic vehicles encounter a series of prob‐lems such as force,heat and control.The impact of new technologies,processes and methods on the system,which aim to complete the expected mission and achieve the desired effect,is difficult to evaluate and quantify.First,the problem definition is given by referring to the common methods in the field of effectiveness evaluation,and the in‐dex system of the evaluation problem is established.Then,the Structural Equation Model of the relationship be‐tween the reaction ability index and technical index is constructed.Second,the estimated values of the structural equation parameters are obtained by AMOS software.Finally,an example is evaluated and verified.The results show that this method provides a feasible idea for mission capability evaluations of this kind of aircraft.It can also comprehensively evaluate the impact of new technology on the capability index,and provides a certain reference value for the development and use of weapons systems in the future.