二元出口架构下中国制造业对外贸易成本的测度与研究

Measurement and Research on the Foreign Trade Cost of China's Manufacturing Industry under the Dualistic Export Framework

基于最新发展的增加值贸易,利用区分贸易类型的数据,研究刻画了二元出口架构下中国制造业对外贸易成本的变动特点。结果显示,如果不考虑贸易类型差异,将会高估中国制造业的对外贸易成本水平、忽略中低技术类别贸易成本偏低的特点。由于加工贸易的对外贸易成本低于一般贸易、分工整合偏向于中低技术类别,加工贸易不仅构成了中国制造业对外贸易便利化的主要动力,更是导致中国制造业贸易便利化偏向中低技术部门的重要诱因。并且,随着加工贸易的中低技术偏向与外贸偏好的凸显,依靠加工贸易维系的贸易成本便利化将会面临“价值链主俘获→外贸偏好增强→对外贸易成本为负→外贸偏好进一步增强→俘获加剧”的严峻挑战。因而,在国内要素成本不断上涨的背景下,中国制造业的对外贸易便利化亟需更为科学、有效的变革。

Based on the latest development of value-added trade,using the data of distinguishing trade types,this paper studies and depicts the changing characteristics of foreign trade costs of China's manufacturing industry under the dual export structure.The results show that if the differences of trade types are not considered,the foreign trade cost level of China's manufacturing industry will be overestimated and the low trade cost of low and medium technology categories will be ignored;Because the foreign trade cost of processing trade is lower than that of general trade and the division of labor and integration is biased towards the category of low and medium technology,processing trade not only constitutes the main driving force of China’s manufacturing foreign trade facilitation,but also an important incentive for China’s manufacturing trade facilitation to be biased towards the low and medium technology sector;Moreover,with the prominence of low and medium technology bias and foreign trade preference of processing trade,the trade cost facilitation maintained by processing trade will face the severe challenge of“main capture of value chain→enhancement of foreign trade preference→negative foreign trade cost→further enhancement of foreign trade preference→intensification of capture”.Therefore,under the background of rising domestic factor costs,the foreign trade facilitation of China’s manufacturing industry urgently needs more scientific and effective changes.