近代中国居民消费影响因素研究(1910—1936)

Research on Factors Affecting Household Consumption in Modern China(1910-1936)

通过重新整理近代中国消费统计资料,并根据经典消费经济思想和理论,对近代中国的居民消费进行经济学逻辑和实证分析可知:近代中国的居民消费依序受到人口总量、人均收入、消费品价格、滞后一期的消费惯性和政府消费五个方面影响。其中,人口总量、人均收入和滞后一期的消费惯性每变动1%,居民消费总额会相应地同向变动1.64%、1.22%和0.11%;价格和政府消费每变动1%,居民消费总额会相应地反向变动0.16%和0.11%。近代中国居民消费的相关研究表明,在总人口没有大的波动的条件下,人均可支配收入和商品价格是一国居民消费需求最重要的两个直接影响因素。

We have collected and rearranged the rare consumption statistics of modern China.Based on classic consumption theories,we have made an economic logic analysis of modern China s household consumption.The empirical results show that residents consumption in modern China was affected by the total population,per capita income,consumer prices,the last-period consumption inertia and government consumption.For every 1%change in the total population,per capita income and the last-period consumption inertia,the household consumption will change by 1.64%and 1.22%and 0.11%accordingly.For every 1%change in the wholesale price and government consumption,the household consumption will change reversely by 0.16%and 0.11%.Research on modern Chinese consumption shows that per capita disposable income and commodity price are the two most important direct factors influencing residents consumption demand when the total population does not fluctuate greatly.