后疫情时代美国货币超发对中国通货膨胀影响研究--基于不确定性视角

Research on the Impact of US Monetary Over-issue on China’s Inflation in the Post-epidemic Era-Based on the Perspective of Uncertainty

后疫情时代中国通货膨胀必定会受美国货币政策及其不确定性的冲击,而冲击影响度量及走势预测是决策过程的一个组成部分。文章选取2007年1月-2021年12月美国广义货币供应量(AM2)、美国货币政策不确定指数(MPU)以及中国居民消费指数(CPI)、生产者价格指数(PPI)的月度数据构建TVP-SV-VAR模型,实证分析美国货币超发引起的不确定性对中国通货膨胀的动态冲击情况。结果显示:相比于金融危机时期,新冠疫情时期中国通货膨胀受美国货币政策冲击趋势并不明显,但量化宽松带来的通胀压力使中国生产者价格有明显上涨,所以需要警惕未来通货膨胀的变化;而新冠疫情时期货币政策不确定性飙升,使得中国通货膨胀明显,进一步可能产生资产泡沫,增加了中国经济发展的复杂性和多变性。

In the post-epidemic era,China’s inflation will inevitably be impacted by the U.S.monetary policy and its uncertainties.The measurement of the impact and the prediction of the next trend are an integral part of the decision-making process.This paper selects the monthly data of the U.S.broad money supply(AM2),U.S.monetary policy uncertainty index(MPU),and Chinese consumer price index(CPI)and producer price index(PPI)from January 2007 to December 2021 to construct a TVP-SV-VAR model,so as to empirically analyze the dynamic impact of the uncertainty caused by the over-issue of U.S.currency on China’s inflation.The result shows that:Compared with that in the period of the financial crisis,China’s inflation was less impacted by the U.S.monetary policy during the COVID-19 epidemic period,but the inflationary pressure brought about by quantitative easing caused Chinese producer prices to rise significantly,so it is necessary to be vigilant against future inflation;during the period of the COVID-19 epidemic,the uncertainty of monetary policy has soared,which boosts China’s inflation and then may generates asset bubbles,increasing the complexity and variability of China’s economic development.