2013-2020年郑州市气温对居民非意外死亡的影响归因风险评估

Attribution risk assessment of air temperature impact on non-accidental death of residents in Zhengzhou,2013-2020

目的探讨郑州市气温与居民死亡的关系,评估气温暴露造成的人群非意外死亡归因风险。方法收集2013-2020年郑州市逐日人群死亡个案资料,结合同期气象及空气质量数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),在控制长期趋势、季节趋势和其他混杂因素后,分析日均气温与非意外死亡的关系,并定量估算由气温造成的归因死亡人数和人群归因分值(AF)。结果郑州市气温对非意外死亡的累积暴露-反应关系近似呈“L”型,27℃为效应最小气温(MMT),其对应死亡风险最小;由气温造成的非意外超额死亡人数为16866例,对应AF为14.20%(95%CI:6.43%~20.68%);冷效应造成非意外超额死亡人数为16070例,对应的AF为13.53%(95%CI:5.61%~20.21%);热效应造成的非意外超额死亡人数为796例,对应的AF为0.67%(95%CI:0.02%~1.37%)。结论气温对人群健康的非意外死亡影响中冷效应为主,气温对男性及≥65岁的人群的健康影响更大。

Objective To explore the relationship between air temperature and death of residents in Zhengzhou city,and assess the attributable risk of non-accidental death caused by air temperature exposure.Methods The daily death case data in Zhengzhou city from 2013 to 2020 were collected.Combined with meteorological and air quality data of the same period,the distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was used to analyze the relationship between average daily temperature and non-accidental death after controlling long-term trends,seasonal trends and other confounding factors.The number of deaths due to air temperature and population attributable fraction(AF)was quantitatively estimated.Results The cumulative exposure-response relationship between temperature and non-accidental death in Zhengzhou was approximately"L"type,and 27℃was the minimum effect-minimum temperature(MMT),which had the lowest risk of death.The number of non-accidental excess deaths caused by temperature was 16866,and the corresponding AF was 14.2%(95%CI:6.43%-20.68%).The number of nonaccidental excess deaths caused by cold effects was 16070,and the corresponding AF was 13.53%(95%CI:5.61%-20.21%).The number of non-accidental excess deaths caused by thermal effects was 796,with a corresponding AF of 0.67%(95%CI:0.02%-1.37%).Conclusion The effect of air temperature on non-accidental death was mainly cold,and the effect of air temperature on the health of men and people≥65 years old was more significant.