2005-2019年我国百日咳发病趋势Joinpoint回归分析

Joinpoint regression analysis for the trends of pertussis incidence in China from 2005 to 2019

目的分析2005—2019年我国百日咳发病的时间变化趋势特征。方法收集2006—2020年《中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴》《中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会公报》中的百日咳发病资料,采用Joinpoint回归分析我国南方省份和北方省份百日咳发病率的时间变化趋势。结果2005—2019年百日咳年均发病率为0.48/10万,2014—2019年以57.5%的年变化百分比上升(P<0.01),平均年变化百分比为17.4%(P<0.01)。北方省份的百日咳发病率高于南方省份,2013—2019年北方省份以38.1%的年变化百分比上升(P<0.01),平均年变化百分比为14.9%(P<0.01);2015—2019年南方省份以90.9%的年变化百分比上升(P<0.01),平均年变化百分比为18.2%(P<0.01)。7—9月为百日咳高发季节,年均发病率为0.18/10万,10—12月百日咳发病率增速最快,年均发病率为0.09/10万,平均年变化百分比为18.6%(P<0.01)。结论南方省份和北方省份百日咳发病率均呈持续上升趋势,北方省份百日咳发病率高于南方省份,而南方省份百日咳增长速度高于北方省份。

Objective To analyze the time trend characteristics of pertussis incidence in China from 2005 to 2019.Methods Data of pertusis incidence were collected from China Statistical Yearbook of Health and Family Planning and Bulletin of the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China from 2006 to 2020.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the time trend characteristics of pertussis incidence in northern and southern areas of China.Results An average annual incidence of pertussis incidence in China from 2005 to 2019 was 0.48 cases/100000.Pertussis incidence increased annually by 57.5%from 2014 to 2019(P<0.01),with an average annual percent change of 17.4%(P<0.01).Pertussis incidence in northern areas exceeded southern areas,pertussis incidence in northern areas increased annually by 38.1%from 2013 to 2019(P<0.01),with an average annual percent change of 14.9%(P<0.01).While pertussis incidence in southern areas increased annually by 90.9%from 2015 to 2019(P<0.01),with an average annual percent change of 18.2%(P<0.01).There showed a high incidence of pertussis from July to September,with an average annual incidence of 0.18 cases/100000.The highest growth was from October to December,with an average annual incidence of 0.09 cases/100000,increased annually by 18.6%(P<0.01).Conclusion The incidence of pertussis in both southern and northern provinces of China shows a trend of continuous increase.The incidence of pertussis in northern provinces is higher than that in southern provinces,while the growth rate in southern provinces is higher than that in northern provinces.