“健康中国”规模指标的关联研究

Correlation Study on“Healthy China”Scale Index

中共中央、国务院印发的《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》《关于促进健康服务业发展的若干意见》中提出,“健康中国”是实现人民健康与经济社会协调发展的国家战略。为了更好地测度和反映“健康中国”的发展状况,国家统计局先后发布了中国特有的健康服务业和健康产业的分类标准。两大产业的总产出、增加值与卫生总费用一起作为衡量“健康中国”规模的重要经济指标。正确认识和理解这些相关指标间的关联,是相关数据发布需要面临的重要现实问题,也是进行相关研究和决策的基本前提。综合运用了经济学、统计学和卫生学相关知识,从理论和统计实务两个维度对“健康中国”规模指标的关联进行研究。研究认为最终产品的关键桥梁作用以及产业分类与操作实践的影响,是指标间产生关联的根本原因。在此基础上,进一步指出五大规模指标在七个方面存在的具体差异,包括统计对象是不同的活动主体、统计内容涉及不同的活动、价值测度采用了不同的价格水平、固定资产价值计量方法存在差异、存货的统计范围不同、进出口的统计口径不同以及数据来源与核算方法不同。研究结果表明,五大规模指标反映了不同视角下“健康中国”的发展水平,指标间存在密切联系和显著差异,在研究和决策中不能进行简单比较分析。

According to the“Outline of Healthy China 2030 plan”and“Several Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Health Service Industry”issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council,“Healthy China”is a national strategy to achieve coordinated development between people’s health and economic society.In order to better measure and reflect the development of“Healthy China”,the National Bureau of Statistics has issued the unique classification standards of“Health Service Industry”and“Health Industry”in China,and the“total output”and“value added”of the above two industries,together with the“total health expenditure”,will be regarded as important economic indicators to measure the scale of“Healthy China”.A correct understanding of the differences and correlations among these indicators is the prerequisite for us to use data for relevant analysis,and also the basis for the government to use data for monitoring and formulating relevant policies.We find a close correlation among outputs,value added and total health costs,mainly through“final products”,but there are differences between them in terms of price level and concerned economic activity subjects.In addition,the difference and connection between the two industrial classifications and the statistical practice of total health expenditure in China are also important reasons for the correlation between indicators.On the basis,we further point out the five indicators of the specific differences in seven aspects,including that,the statistical object is the activity of different subjects,statistical content involves different activities,value measure adopted different price level,differences between fixed assets value method,inventory statistics scope of different statistical caliber,differences in import and export statistics,as well as the data source with different accounting methods.We believe that the five scale indicators reflect the development level of“Healthy China”from different perspectives,and there are close links and significant difference.