中国数字经济产业的关联拉动效应研究

Research on the Association and Pulling Effect of Digital Economy Industry in China

厘清数字经济产业驱动传统产业发展的“红利”效用,是赋能传统产业转型升级、推动形成“双循环”新发展格局的关键研究议题。基于国家统计局2021年6月发布的数字经济产业分类标准:《数字经济及其核心产业统计分类(2021)》,利用2018年全国投入产出表的样本数据,从投入产出模型视角测度数字经济产业在连接、平衡和带动传统产业发展的驱动效应。研究发现:从产业关联效应来看,数字经济产业的内乘数效应、溢出效应和反馈效应均高于社会平均水平,说明数字经济产业是促进经济“内循环”发展的重要着力点;数字经济产业前向关联大于后向关联,对下游产业的支撑大于对上游产业的拉动,属于要素驱动型产业;制造业、租赁和商务服务业与数字经济产业最为密切,是发展数字经济的主战场。从宏观经济效应来看,数字经济产业的产出效应高于社会平均水平,是拉动经济增长的强力引擎;收入效应和就业效应的带动作用还未充分释放,但与平均水平相差不大,一旦数字经济基础设施建设完备,数字经济红利向外辐射,将为国民经济带来更强的收入和就业拉动效应。在实证结果的基础上,提出加强数字化赋权基础设施建设,降低“数字化”赋能成本;立足数字经济的主战场,打造数据要素驱动的“数智经济”;发挥数字技术特征优势,充分释放数字经济产业的乘数效应等建议,能够为有关部门从实际角度出发制定符合数字经济发展水平和发展潜力的策略提供理论思考,进而优化数字经济产业的关联拉动效应,助力新发展格局的形成。

Clarifying the dividend utility of the digital economy industry in driving the development of traditional industries is a key research topic for empowering the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and promoting the formation of a new development pattern of“dual cycle”.Based on the Digital Economy Industry Classification Standard issued by the National Bureau of Statistics in June 2021:“Statistical Classification of Digital Economy and Its Core Industries(2021)”,using sample data from the National Input-Output Table in 2018 to measure numbers from the perspective of input-output models.The driving effect of economic industry in connecting,balancing and driving the development of traditional industries.The results show that:from the perspective of industrial correlation,the spillover effect,internal multiplier effect and feedback effect of the digital economy industry in 2018 were all higher than the social average,showing a decreasing trend in order.The contribution share of the spillover effect exceeded 50%,indicating the self-viability of the digital economy industry,strong correlation and sensing capabilities,and smooth channels for promoting economic growth;the digital economy industry has more forward correlation than backward correlation,supports downstream industries more than pulls upstream industries,and belongs to factor-driven industries;manufacturing,leasing and business.The service industry is the most closely related industry in the digital economy.It is preferentially affected by digital technology,and its digital transformation is at the forefront.From the perspective of macroeconomic effects,the output effect of the digital economy industry in 2018 is a powerful engine for economic growth,and the driving effects of the income effect and employment effect have not been effectively released.As a knowledge-and technology-intensive industry,the digital economy industry is weakly dependent on labor and cannot allocate a large number of jobs.At the same time,it has higher requirements for the knowledge and skills of labor.It shows that vigorously developing the digital economy industry has a two-way promotion effect on improving the knowledge level and vocational skills of the labor force.On the basis of the empirical results,it is proposed to strengthen the construction of digital empowerment infrastructure to reduce the cost of“digital”empowerment;to build a“digital intelligence economy”driven by data elements based on the main battlefield of the digital economy;to pay attention to the three multipliers of the digital economy industry.Suggestions such as increasing the investment and supply of the digital economy industry,adjusting the element structure of the digital economy industry,giving full play to the advantages of digital technology features,and fully releasing the multiplier effect of the digital economy industry can provide relevant departments to formulate from a practical point of view in line with the digital economy.The strategy of development level and development potential provides theoretical thinking,and then optimizesthepulleffectofthedigital economy industry and helps the formation of a new development pattern.