中国省域双循环新发展格局绩效测度及其空间收敛性分析

Performance Measurement and Spatial Convergence Analysis of the New Development Pattern of China’s Provincial Dual Cycle

双循环新发展格局是“十四五”规划及未来相当长一段时期中国经济发展的战略主轴。厘清中国双循环新发展格局的整体性进展、地区发展水平和变化趋势特征,对促进中国经济高质量发展和建设社会主义现代化强国具有重要意义。基于双循环新发展格局的核心思想和深刻内涵,紧扣“有内有外、以内为主、内外联动”的发展宗旨,从国内大循环、国际大循环、内外资一体化三个维度构建了双循环新发展格局绩效综合评价指标体系,采用改进的CRITIC—熵权法组合权重的TOPSIS模型测度2004—2018年中国30个省份的双循环绩效,并基于SDM模型和SARAR模型对双循环绩效的空间收敛性进行系统检验。研究发现:中国双循环绩效整体呈上升趋势,东部和中部省份双循环绩效提升速度快于西部省份,且省域间地域性差异明显,领先地区主要集聚于东部沿海省份。全局双循环绩效存在明显的空间自相关特征,且空间集聚程度逐渐增强;从局域空间自相关来看,双循环绩效高值区域和低值区域在地理空间分布上均相对集中稳定。省域双循环绩效水平在增长中呈现收敛态势,即落后省份的双循环绩效增长率高于发达省份。因此,中国在推动构建双循环新发展格局过程中应注重建立健全评价机制,充分发挥政府调控作用;加快省域间交流合作,推动区域协同发展;同时强化企业主体地位,推动内外资一体化发展,给予内外资企业同等待遇,完善内外资一体化政策体系。

As a major strategic deployment in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and for a long time in the future,the new dual-cycle development has important research value to clarify the overall progress,regional development level and change trend characteristics of China’s new dual-cycle pattern in order to deal with the changes in the past century and build a great modern socialist country.Based on the core ideas and profound connotations of the new dual-cycle development pattern,and closely following the development tenet of“internal and external,internal-based,and internal-internal linkage”,a comprehensive evaluation index system for the performance of the new dual-cycle development pattern has been constructed from the three-dimensional structure of domestic circulation,international circulation,and integration of domestic and foreign capital.This system is constructed by employing the improved CRITIC-entropy weight method combined weighted TOPSIS model to measure the dual-cycle performance of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2018,and based on the SDM model and SARAR model,the spatial convergence is systematically checked.According to the study,Chinese dual-cycle performance is on the rise as a whole.The dual-cycle performance of the eastern and central provinces is improving faster than the western provinces,and the regional differences between provinces are obvious,the leading areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal provinces.The global dual-cycle performance has obvious spatial autocorrelation characteristics,and the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually increases;From the perspective of local spatial autocorrelation,the high-value areas and low-value areas of dual-cycle performance are relatively concentrated and stable in geographic spatial distribution.The provincial dual-cycle performance level shows a convergence trend in the growth,that is,the dual-cycle performance growth rate of the backward provinces is higher than that of the developed provinces.The main research implications are as follows:in the process of promoting the construction of a new dual-cycle development pattern,China should focus on establishing and improving the evaluation mechanism and give full play to the government’s regulatory role;accelerate exchanges and cooperation between provinces and promote regional coordinated development;at the same time,strengthen the dominant position of enterprises and promote domestic and foreign investment.Integrated development,giving equal treatment to domestic and foreign enterprises,and improving the policy system for the integration of domestic and foreign investment.