水泉矿基于灰色预测模型的矿井涌水量预测

Prediction of mine water in flow based on gray prediction model in Shuiquan mine

矿井涌水量是评价矿井水文地质条件复杂程度的重要指标,本文系统研究了水泉矿水文地质特征、充水条件、充水因素及充水通道。利用灰色理论建立GM(1,1)模型,对水泉煤矿矿井涌水量进行了预测。对矿区2020年1~12月涌水量进行了计算和分析,得出2021年1,2月份矿井涌水量分别为11.4605 m^(3)/h,11.7327 m^(3)/h,结果与水泉煤矿实际值相似。在今后进行矿井涌水量预测时,应选择多种合适的数学模型进行计算及比较,以提高预测的精准度,为水害防治提供数据支撑。

Mine water inflow is an important index to evaluate the complexity of mine hydrogeological conditions.This paper systematically studies the hydrogeological characteristics,water filling conditions,water filling factorsand water filling channels in Shuiquan mine.The GM(1,1)model is established by using gray theory to predict the mine water inflow in Shuiquan mine.Based on the calculation and analysis of water inflow from January to December in 2020,it is concluded that the mine water inflow in January and February in 2021is 11.4605 m^(3)/h and 11.7327 m^(3)/h respectively,which is similar to the actual value of Shuiquan mine.At the prediction of mine water inflow in the future,a variety of suitable mathematical models should be selected for calculation and comparison,so as to improve the accuracy of prediction and provide data support for water disaster prevention and control.