基于ERG需求模型的幸福河综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of Happy River based on ERG demand model

针对建设幸福河实现新时代河湖治理的目标,基于ERG(existence relatedness growth)需求模型,建立了包括23个核心指标和27个可选指标的幸福河评价指标体系;运用Matlab软件,以幸福河等级指数为目标,采用投影寻踪模型建立幸福河评价指标值与幸福河等级指数之间的非线性关系,构建了基于改进的粒子群优化投影寻踪(IPSO-PPE)的幸福河等级评价模型,实现对幸福河的定量评价。以黄河甘肃段为例,分析了其2010—2018年幸福河等级指数变化的趋势,结果表明:黄河甘肃段幸福河等级指数整体呈上升趋势,由2010年的E等级(不幸福)提升到2018年的B等级(幸福指数较高),评价结果与GRA-TOPSIS法结果吻合率达到88.9%,能较好地反映黄河甘肃段实际情况;水土流失、流域水患灾害、河流生态基流满足程度是制约黄河甘肃段幸福河等级指数的主要因素。

Aiming at the goal of building Happy River and realizing river and lake governance in the new era,an evaluation index system of Happy River,including 23 core indexes and 27 optional indexes,was established based on ERG(existence relevance growth)demand model.Using MATLAB software,taking Happy River grade index as the target,the nonlinear relationship between Happy River evaluation index value and Happy River grade index was established by using projection pursuit model,and the Happy River grade evaluation model based on improved particle swarm optimization projection pursuit evaluation(IPSO-PPE)was constructed to realize the quantitative evaluation of Happy River.Taking Gansu section of the main stream of the Yellow River as an example,the change trend of Happy River grade index from 2010 to 2018 was analyzed.The results show that the grade index of Happy River in Gansu section of the main stream of the Yellow River shows an upward trend as a whole,from grade E(unhappiness)in 2010 to grade B(higher happiness index)in 2018.The coincidence rate between the evaluation results and the results of GRA-TOPSIS method is 88.9%,which can better reflect the actual situation of Gansu section of the Yellow River.Soil erosion,flood disaster in the basin and the satisfaction degree of river ecological base flow are the main factors restricting the grade index of Happy River in Gansu section of the Yellow River.