粤港澳大湾区水资源空间均衡性分析

Analysis of water resources spatial equilibrium in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay Area

依据2009—2019年粤港澳大湾区社会经济指标和水资源数据,通过泰尔指数、基尼系数对人口、GDP与水资源空间分布的均衡性进行研究,并构建了水资源负载指数模型,分析了区域水资源开发程度。结果表明:2019年粤港澳大湾区人口与水资源量、GDP与水资源量的匹配程度较低,基尼系数分别为0.520和0.651,属于高度不平均等级,且基尼系数呈上升趋势;通过泰尔指数得到了相同的结论,区域间差异对总体差异贡献率较大,而区域内的人口、GDP与水资源匹配差距不突出;2019年粤港澳大湾区水资源负载指数为4.0,等级为Ⅲ级,开发利用程度为中等水平,各城市水资源负载差距悬殊,且呈逐年增加趋势,表现为经济总量大、人口密集、水资源条件相对不足的地区,开发利用程度高、潜力小;粤港澳大湾区水资源空间分布与生产力布局不协调,且水资源空间不均衡性有进一步加剧的趋势。

Based on the economic and social indicators and water resources data of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay Area from 2009 to 2019, the spatial equilibrium of population, GDP and water resources was studied through Theil index and Gini coefficient, and the water resources load index model was constructed to analyze the degree of regional water resources development. The results showed that the matching degree between population and water resources, GDP and water resources in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay Area was low in 2019, and the Gini coefficient was 0.520 and 0.651, respectively, which belonged to a highly uneven level, and the Gini coefficient showed an upward trend. The same conclusion was obtained through the Theil index. Inter-regional differences contribute greatly to the overall difference, while the matching gap between population, GDP and water resources in the region was not prominent. In 2019, the water resources load index of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay Area was 4.0, the grade was grade Ⅲ, and the degree of development and utilization was at the medium level. The water resources load gap among cities was wide, and showed an increasing trend year by year. Areas with large economic aggregate, dense population and relatively insufficient water resources had high degree of development and utilization and low potential. The spatial distribution of water resources in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay Area is not coordinated with the layout of productivity, and the spatial imbalance of water resources has a trend of further aggravation.