农业转移人口市民化的内需拉动效应研究

A Research on the Stimulating Effect of Domestic Demand on the Citizenization of Rural-Urban Migrants

农业转移人口市民化是推进新型城镇化建设的核心任务,蕴含着巨大的内需潜力,对扩大内需战略实施具有重要的支撑作用。在厘清市民化内涵的基础上,对照国民经济核算支出法的项目确定内需拉动领域,系统测算了农业转移人口市民化对内需的拉动作用:如果按照过去市民化的速度,可拉动内需增长约1.46个百分点;如果加快推动市民化,到2035年全部农业转移人口实现市民化,可拉动内需增长约2.01个百分点;后者比前者多拉动0.55个百分点。采取放宽城市落户限制、统筹兼顾增量和存量农业转移人口的市民化、解决农业转移人口住房问题等措施可使农业转移人口市民化健康快速推进。

The citizenization of rural-urban migrants is the core task of advancing the construction of new urbanization.It contains huge domestic demand potential and plays an important supporting role in the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand.On the basis of clarifying the connotation of citizenization,this article has determined the stimulating field against the items of the national economic accounting expenditure method,and systematically measured the stimulating effect of the citizenization of the rural-urban migrants on domestic demand.If the rate of urbanization in the past is used,it will stimulate the growth of domestic demand.The effect is about 1.46 percentage points;if the promotion of citizenization is accelerated,the stimulating effect on domestic demand growth is about 2.01 percentage points;the latter will pull 0.55 percentage points more than the former.In the end,this paper puts forward suggestions for further relaxing the restrictions on urban settlement,the overall planning of citizenization of the increase and the stock of agricultural migrants,and the simultaneous implementation of multiple measures to solve the housing problem of the agricultural migrants.