基于作物水分亏缺指数的环渤海地区鲜食葡萄干旱风险评估

Drought Risk Assessment of Table Grapes in the Bohai Rim Region Based on Crop Water Deficit Index

水分对葡萄的生长发育过程有着不容忽视的影响。为了给鲜食葡萄种植干旱风险管理和减损保质提供一定理论参考,本研究以中国葡萄环渤海产区为研究区域,以作物水分亏缺指数为探究鲜食葡萄干旱的指标,采用区域内60个气象站点1981-2014年的逐日气象资料,通过计算区域内鲜食葡萄各生育期内的作物水分亏缺指数,得到各生育期鲜食葡萄的干旱频率及站次比,基于区域内鲜食葡萄干旱时空分布情况评估其干旱发生风险。结果表明:环渤海地区降水量与鲜食葡萄需水量的时间匹配性较差,区域内鲜食葡萄在各个生育阶段均具有一定的干旱风险;以鲜食葡萄的新梢生长期及着色成熟期为发生干旱的高风险时期,该时期发生干旱频率高且易发生较为严重的干旱;以河北省中南部为干旱高风险地区,该地区鲜食葡萄发生严重干旱风险较高,且环渤海地区鲜食葡萄以着色成熟期干旱影响范围最广。

The influence of water on the growth and development of grapes cannot be ignored.In order to provide a theoretical reference for drought risk management and loss reduction and quality assurance of table grapes,the Bohai Rim region was taken as a study area.The crop water deficit index,which was calculated using daily meteorological data from 60 meteorological stations in the region from 1981 to 2014,was taken as an index to explore the drought of table grapes.By the crop water deficit index of the table grapes in each growth period in the region,the drought frequency and station ratio of the table grapes in each growth period were obtained.Then we evaluated the risk of drought based on the spatial and temporal distribution of table grapes in the region.The results showed that the matching degree was low in the time dimension between the water requirement of table grapes in the Bohai Rim region and precipitation,and table grapes in the region had a certain risk of drought in each growth stage.The new shoot growth period and fruit ripe period of table grapes were high-risk periods of drought in the region,when droughts were more frequently and more severely to occur.The central and southern part of Hebei province were high-risk area for drought,and where the risk of severe droughts is higher for table grapes.Table grapes in the Bohai Rim region had the most widely range of drought during the ripening period.