价格规制下中国油气能源需求弹性差异及成因分析

Difference and Cause Analysis of China's Oil and Gas Energy Demand Elasticity under Price Regulation

以中国2004―2019年天然气和汽油的消费量为样本,采用对数需求弹性模型,估算价格规制下油气能源需求弹性差异,进一步分析需求弹性差异的成因。研究表明:油气能源需求整体缺乏弹性,相对于需求价格弹性和需求规制价格弹性,需求GDP弹性系数较高。价格规制变量对天然气和汽油需求量有正向作用,不考虑价格规制时油气能源的价格与需求呈反比;东、中部地区的需求价格弹性高于西部。价格规制对三大地带的汽油需求收入弹性具有正向促进作用。中部地区油气能源都富于价格规制弹性;天然气需求价格弹性空间分异较大,其中东部沿海地区天然气需求价格弹性较大,汽油是南高北低;各省油气能源之间需求收入弹性的空间分异相差较小,需求收入弹性系数值较高的是天然气,汽油次之。天然气需求收入弹性的空间特征是东高西低,汽油是南高北低;GDP、人口、城镇化、产业结构和能源价格等对中国油气能源需求弹性差异性的影响较为显著。

Taking natural gas and gasoline consumption in China from 2004 to 2019 as samples,the logarithmic demand elasticity model is used to estimate the difference of oil and gas energy demand elasticity under price regulation,and further analyze the causes of the difference of demand elasticity.Research shows that:overall,oil and gas energy demand is generally inelastic.Compared with the price elasticity of demand and the price elasticity of demand regulation,the coefficient of elasticity of demand GDP is relatively high.The price regulation variables have a positive effect on the demand for natural gas and gasoline,and the price of oil and gas energy is inversely proportional to demand when price regulation is not considered;the price elasticity of demand in the eastern and central regions is higher than that in the western regions.Price regulation has a positive effect on the income elasticity of gasoline demand in the three major regions.Oil and gas energy in the central region are rich in regulatory price elasticity;natural gas demand price elasticity is highly spatially differentiated,among which the price elasticity of natural gas demand in the eastern coastal areas is relatively large,while gasoline is higher in the south and lower in the north;The difference in heterogeneity is small,and the higher value of demand income elasticity is natural gas,followed by gasoline.The spatial characteristics of natural gas demand income elasticity are high in the east and low in the west,while gasoline is high in the south and low in the north;GDP,population,urbanization,industrial structure,and energy prices have a significant impact on the differences in the elasticity of oil and gas energy demand.