地方政府举债融资对资本价格扭曲的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Local Government Debt Financing on Capital Price Distortion

在加速推进要素市场化配置改革的背景下,随着中国地方政府举债融资规模越来越大,其所带来的经济效应需深入研究。从地方政府发行地方债视角切入,分析了地方政府举债融资对资本价格扭曲的影响。首先,从投资规模角度构建了地方债发行对资本价格扭曲的影响机制;然后,基于中国地级及以上城市数据,利用生产函数法测算资本价格扭曲情况,使用多期双重差分模型实证检验了地方政府发行地方债对资本价格扭曲的影响效应;此外,进一步采用中介效应模型进行了影响机制检验。研究发现:地方政府发行地方债会加剧资本价格扭曲,且在东部地区的影响幅度最大,在中部地区的影响幅度最小;地方政府发行地方债会通过缩小投资规模的途径加剧资本价格扭曲。基于实证分析结论,建议进一步规范地方政府举债融资的制度设计,并关注基础设施建设的有效性问题。

With the further advancement of the market-oriented reform,accelerating the reform of the factor market-oriented allocation has become the key to releasing dividends from the reform.Government intervention is the main reason hindering the factor market-oriented allocation.After the financial crisis,debt financing has become a channel for local governments to intervene in the capital market operation,which has an impact on the capital market-oriented allocation.With the increasing scale of local government debt financing in China,the impact of local government debt financing on the capital market-based allocation reform needs to be systematically analyzed.However,the existing literature lacks research on this issue.From the perspective of investment scale,this articleconstructs the impact mechanism of local government debt financing on capital price distortion.Based on the data of prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2003 to 2016,the production function method is used to measure capital price distortion.With the issuance of local bonds by local governments as a policy experiment,the multi-period difference-in-differences model is used to empirically analyze the impact of issuance of local bonds by local governments on the capital price distortion,and the mediation effect model is used to analyze the impact mechanism of investment scale.Empirical research finds that the issuance of local bonds by local governments will exacerbate the capital price distortion,and the impact is the largest in the eastern region and the smallest in the central region.The results of the mechanism analysis show that the issuance of local bonds by local governments will exacerbate the capital price distortion by reducing the investment scale.This article mainly contributes to the existing literature in the following two aspects.First,it considers the capital market-oriented allocation reform from the perspective of local government behavior,and provides new analytical perspective for the research on capital market-oriented allocation reform.The existing literature lacks a systematic analysis of the impact factors of factor price distortions.This paper discusses the impact factors of the capital price distortion from the perspective of local government debt financing.Second,from the perspective of investment scale,this article builds a mechanism for local government debt financing on the capital price distortion.Local government debt financing will affect investment scale through the crowding-in effect or the crowding-out effect,and the latter will affect capital price distortion through the effect of economies of scale or the government intervention effect.Our research analyzes the influence and mechanism of local government behavior on the reform of the capital market-based allocation,which is helpful for local governments to promote the reform of the capital market-based allocation,and formulate more targeted policy implications.It also provides new ideas for optimizing the design of local government debt financing system.