四平市人口老龄化时空格局演变及应对措施研究

Research on the Evolution of Spatial-temporal Pattern and Countermeasures of Aging Population in Siping

以地理信息系统为技术支持,运用主成分分析和灰色关联度等分析方法,结合第五次人口普查、第六次人口普查和《四平市统计年鉴》数据,从空间视角分析四平市人口老龄化时空格局演变规律及其影响因素,提出积极应对人口老龄化的策略建议。结果表明,四平市人口老龄化正在向深度发展,2000—2019年,老龄人口比重增长了13.51%;四平市人口老龄化程度以市区为中心向周边县(市)递减扩散,市区是最先进入老龄化社会且一直为老龄化程度最深的区域;2000—2019年,四平市各县(市)老龄化发展属于“水涨船高”式的增长模式,发展速度差异较大,老龄化程度差距不断加大;四平市老龄人口密度的空间差异较大;经济发展和地理位置影响人口老龄化的程度,人口、生育、教育和医疗政策影响人口老龄化程度,其中,人口自然变动因素中的出生率、死亡率和人口结构因素对人口老龄化发展起主导作用,经济和社会因子中的社会经济、城镇化率和医疗水平等影响相对较弱。积极应对四平市人口老龄化问题应考虑从提高人口出生率、减少青壮年人口流失、积极发展银发经济和推进养老服务等方面展开工作,为推动四平市高质量发展、加快构建新发展格局提供参考。

This research is technically supported by geographic information system,using principal component analysis and grey correlation analysis methods,taking the Siping City as the research unit,combining the fifth census,the sixth census and the statistics of Siping City.The yearbook analyzes the characteristics,laws and influencing factors of the temporal and spatial distribution of aging population in Siping from a spatial perspective,and proposes strategies and suggestions to actively respond to aging population.The results show that the aging population of Siping City is developing in depth.From 2000 to 2019,the proportion of the elderly population increased by 13.51%;the aging population degree of Siping City is gradually spreading from the urban area to the surrounding counties(cities),and the urban area is the first Entering an aging society and has always been the area with the most serious aging;from 2000 to 2019,the aging development of all counties(cities)in Siping City develops together,with large differences in development speed and continuous aging gaps from 2000 to 2019;economic development and geographical location affect the development and development of aging population Layout,population,fertility,education and medical policies affect the development speed of aging population.Natural demographic factors dominate the development of population aging,and the influence of economic and social factors is relatively weak.To actively respond to the problem of aging population in Siping City,consideration should be given to increasing the birth rate,reducing the loss of the young and middle-aged population,actively developing the silver economy and promoting elderly care services.Provide reference for actively responding to the aging of the population,promoting the high-quality development of Siping City and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern.