基于DEMATEL和物元可拓模型的装配式建筑供应链风险评估

Risk Assessment of Prefabricated Building Supply Chain Based on DEMATEL and Extension Matter Element Model

为提升装配式建筑供应链的风险管控水平,首先从全生命周期视角识别出各个阶段的风险要素,建立了装配式建筑供应链风险评估指标体系;充分考虑到风险指标之间的关联性,运用DEMATEL方法建立了各项指标的内部联系,得到指标的重要性程度从而确定权重;然后,采用物元可拓模型对供应链风险进行评估,通过建立待评估物元的经典域和节域,收集指标的测量数据并进行处理,确定各个阶段的风险等级以及综合风险等级;最后,将该模型运用到具体案例中,结果显示该案例中的供应链综合风险为“中等”,对应的风险等级为Ⅲ级,同时还得到每个阶段的风险等级,对项目风险防控具有一定的指导意义。

In order to improve the risk control level of the prefabricated construction supply chain,firstly,the risk elements of each stage are identified from the whole life cycle perspective,and the risk assessment index system of the assembly construction supply chain is established,the DEMATEL method is applied to analyze the degree of mutual influence between two risk indicators,and the index weights are further obtained.The supply chain risk is evaluated by using the matter-element extension model,and by establishing.Then,the model is used to evaluate the supply chain risk by establishing the classical and nodal domains of the elements to be evaluated,collecting the measurement data of the indicators and processing them to determine the risk level of each stage and the comprehensive risk level.Finally,the model is applied to a specific case,and the calculation results show that the model is scientifically effective in the risk assessment of the supply chain of prefabricated buildings.