江苏省乡村绿色发展的时空特征及影响因素

Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Rural Green Development in Jiangsu Province

以经济发达的江苏省为研究区域,建立乡村绿色发展指数测算指标体系,采用熵权法、泰尔指数、莫兰指数等方法,探讨2007—2017年江苏省乡村绿色发展的时空演变特征,并构建回归模型揭示其影响因素,结果表明:(1)近10年来,江苏省乡村绿色发展指数整体呈上升趋势,区域差异逐步缩小,苏南、苏中、苏北三大区域内部差异大是造成区域差异的主要原因。(2)研究期内,省域乡村绿色发展水平及其分维指数呈现出苏南—苏中—苏北逐渐递减的空间分异特征,但绿色生态指数呈现反向递增的空间格局;乡村绿色发展存在显著的空间集聚态势,高值集聚区主要分布在苏南地区,低值集聚区分布在苏北地区。(3)经济发展、农村人力资本含量等对江苏省乡村绿色发展具有一定的积极影响,城镇化、工业化以及财政支农力度对乡村绿色发展具有一定的消极影响,城乡收入差距的扩大不利于乡村绿色发展,农业机械化水平的提高有利于乡村绿色发展但效果并不显著。

Taking Jiangsu Province as the research area,this paper established the evaluation indicators system of rural green development,applied entropy method,Theil index and Moran’s I to explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics in 2007-2017,and the regression model was constructed to reveal the influencing factors.The results show that:1) In the past 10 years,the level of rural green development in Jiangsu overall showed an upward trend,the regional differences have gradually been narrowed,and the intra-regional difference among three regions which are the southern,central and northern Jiangsu Province is the main reason for the regional differences.2) During the research period,the level of rural green development and its dimensional index showed the gradually decreasing spatial differentiation characteristics from the south of Jiangsu Province to the north,but the green ecological index showed a reverse increasing.The level of rural green development also showed significant spatial agglomeration characteristic.The high-value agglomeration areas of rural green development mainly distributed in the southern Jiangsu,and the low-value agglomeration areas distributed in the northern Jiangsu.3) Economic development and rural human capital had positive effect on the level of rural green development in Jiangsu Province,while urbanization,industrialization and the financial support for agriculture had negative effect on it.The widening of urban-rural income gap is not conducive to rural green development,the improvement of agricultural mechanization level is conducive to rural green development,but the effect is not significant.