隐性经济视角下异质性环境规制对雾霾污染的时空效应

Spatio-temporal Effect of Environmental Regulations on Haze Pollution from the Perspective of Implicit Economy

隐性经济作为制度监管的漏洞给生态环境带来了严重威胁,然而目前仍缺乏应对隐性经济及雾霾污染的长期有效的治理措施。文章采用MIMIC模型测算了中国大陆31个省份2000—2018年的隐性经济规模,结果表明各省份隐性经济规模年均值介于11.74%~17.35%之间,并呈现出缓慢上升的趋势。基于对雾霾污染空间相关性特征的检验,文章进一步采用空间杜宾模型探究异质性(正式和非正式)环境规制、隐性经济及其交互作用对雾霾污染的影响。得出以下研究结论:隐性经济的存在会弱化本地及邻近地区正式环境规制的治理效力,甚至使其无效化。非正式环境规制的规范性压力抑制了本地的污染性隐性经济活动,是治理隐性经济及雾霾污染的有效工具,但其并未对邻近区域的隐性经济活动产生影响。正式、非正式环境规制与隐性经济的交互作用对雾霾污染的影响存在空间异质性,非正式环境规制的抑制作用主要体现在西部地区。据此,文章从规制工具及隐性经济等角度提出了相应的政策建议。

As a loophole in government supervision,the implicit economy poses a serious threat to the ecological environment.However,there are still no long-term effective measures to control the implicit economy and haze pollution.This paper uses a multiple indicators and multiple causes model to measure the implicit economic scale of 31 provinces in China’s mainland from 2000 to 2018 and the results show that the annual average value of the implicit economic scale is between 11.74%-17.35% with a slow upward trend.Based on the verification of the spatial correlation characteristics of haze pollution,this article further uses the spatial Durbin model to explore the impact of formal and informal environmental regulations,implicit economy and their interactions on haze pollution.The results show that the implicit economy will weaken or even invalidate the governance effectiveness of local and neighboring formal environmental regulations.However,the normative pressure of informal environmental regulations inhibits local implicit economic activities,which is a powerful tool to control the implicit economy and haze pollution,but it does not affect the implicit economic activities in the neighboring areas.The interaction of formal and informal environmental regulations and implicit economy has spatial heterogeneity in the impact of haze pollution,and the inhibitory effect of informal environmental regulations is only reflected in the western region.Accordingly,this article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations from the perspectives of regulatory tools and implicit economy.