中国农业全要素碳排放绩效时序演进及空间收敛特征

Temporal Evolution and Spatial Convergence Characteristics of China’s Agricultural Total Factor Carbon Emission Performance

文章利用环境生产技术思想构建了全要素视角下的农业碳排放绩效衡量指标,进一步引入考虑群组异质性的非径向Malmquist动态指数与空间收敛检验方法,测度分析了2000-2018年中国31个省份农业全要素碳排放绩效的时序演进与空间收敛特征。结果表明:(1)中国农业全要素碳排放绩效平均值由2000年的0.29提升至2018年的0.57,成效显著。(2)东、中、西部地区的农业全要素碳排放绩效均呈现波动递增的时序演进特征。(3)东、中、西部地区的农业全要素碳排放绩效增长驱动模式具有差异性,东部地区属于效率改善与技术进步双重作用的“双驱”增长模式;西部地区属于技术主导型的“单驱”增长模式;中部地区属于效率改善型的“单驱”增长模式。(4)全国及东、中、西部地区农业全要素碳排放绩效不存在明显的σ收敛,但在全国和中部地区存在绝对β收敛。因此,不同地区应因地制宜地制定农业低碳减排方案与农业高质量发展方针政策。

This paper uses the idea of environmental production technology to construct agricultural carbon emission performance evaluation indexes from the perspective of total factors,and further introduces the non-radial Malmquist dynamic index considering group heterogeneity and spatial convergence test methods to measure and analyze the temporal evolution and spatial convergence characteristics of China*s agricultural total factor carbon emission performance in 31 provinces from 2000 to 2018.The results are shown as follows:(1)The average performance of China’s agricultural total factor carbon emission increased from 0.29 in 2000 to 0.57 in 2018,showing remarkable progress.(2)The performance of agricultural total factor carbon emissions in the eastern,central and western regions shows the temporal evolution characteristics with increasing fluctuations.(3)The driving models of performance growth of agricultural total factor carbon emissions in the eastern,central and western regions are differ-ent,and the eastern region is a“dual drive”growth model with the dual effects of efficiency improvement and technological prog-ress.The western region belongs to the technology-oriented“single drive”growth mode.The central region belongs to the effi-ciency improvement“single drive”growth pattern.(4)There is no significantσconvergence of agriculture total factor carbon emission in China and all regions.However,there is significant absoluteβconvergence in China and central regions.Therefore,different regions should formulate agricultural low-carbon emission reduction programs and agricultural high-quality development guidelines and policies according to local conditions.