基于底线思维的上海市中心城存量住房更新结构研究

RESEARCH ON THE REGENERATION STRUCTURE OF INVENTORY HOUSING IN CENTRAL URBAN AREA OF SHANGHAI UNDER THE PRINCIPLE OF BOTTOM LINE

上海市落实国家“十四五”规划纲要,将存量住房更新作为重要任务,但由于建筑普查信息不完备,存量住房更新实践面临基础底数不清、更新时序底图不清等问题。借鉴香港实施强制验楼计划的经验,本研究以底线思维确定存量住房更新的确定原则,分别以住宅的建筑结构安全、外墙安全、公用设施安全作为判定基本标准;广泛搜集不同阶段的国家相关标准和行业规范,确定底线要求对应的住房安全使用年限;借助多源数据获得了上海市中心城存量住房更新的基础底数和时序底图,以及基于底线安全的上海市中心城住房更新任务指数和街道分类。研究认为,当前阶段从底线思维出发的存量住房更新应获得更多的政策关注,相关主管部门应从存量住房更新的主体、资金、组织方式、法规等角度寻求制度创新,引领底线型存量住房更新进程。

Following the Outline of the 14^(th) National Five-Year Plan,Shanghai takes the regeneration and refurbishing of inventory housing as an important task.However,due to the lack of building census system,basic quantity and spatial distribution analysis is absent for the reasonable arrangement of inventory housing regeneration.Drawing on the experience of Hong Kong’s Mandatory Building Inspection Scheme,three factors are identified as the basic criteria under the principle of bottom line for inventory housing regeneration,namely the structural safety,the external wall safety,and the necessary facilities safety,for the measurement and analysis of inventory housing.National and industry standards are collected as supplementary to determine the threshold serving time of a housing to be regenerated.Using multi-source big data of old housing located in central urban area of Shanghai,the basic quantity and spatial atlas are generated,as well as the classification of sub-districts.At the current stage,more policy attention is necessary for the regeneration of inventory housing near the age limit.Institutional innovation like governance,finance,organization and regulation are needed to accelerate the regeneration process under the principle of bottom line.