我国铁路客运量干预性季节因素影响

The seasonal factor influence of railway passenger volume interference in China

以我国铁路旅客客运量的强季节性及外部干预影响关系为研究对象,融合时间序列X-13ARIMA-SEATS季节调整模型离群值、季节性识别功能和ARIMAX干扰模型的非线性干扰分析功能,系统设计基于季节性特征的线性与非线性干预模型,对我国铁路旅客客运量干预效应对季节性影响进行分析。结论显示,铁路旅客客运量季节性根据外部干预因素变化呈现出不稳定变化特征,依据离群值剥离的外部干预因素在一定程度上能净化铁路旅客客运量的干扰性季节因素,非线性季节性干预模型能够解释更多的外部环境信息,还原铁路旅客客运量季节性变量影响本质,我国铁路客运量显示为外部环境负向影响的季节性移动平均特点。

The paper takes the strong seasonality and the external intervention of railway passenger volume in China as the research object,integrates the outliers and seasonal recognition function of X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonally adjusted model and nonlinear interference analysis function of ARIMAX interference model,designs linear and nonlinear interference models based on seasonal characteristics,and makes a comparative analysis on the seasonality and interference of passenger volume of four types of public transport in China.The result shows that the railway passenger volume seasonal factors present instability characteristics according to the external intervention,external interference factors according to outliers stripping can purify the railway passenger volume seasonal interference factors some extent,seasonal nonlinear intervention model can explain more external environment information,and restore railway passenger volume seasonal factor nature.China’s railway passenger volume shows negative seasonal moving average characteristic of external environment.