数字化赋能:互联网使用对农户信贷的影响及其异质性研究——基于选择实验方法的检验和分析

Digital Empowerment:The Impact of Internet Usage on Farmers’ Credit and Its Heterogeneity

“互联网+”能否赋能农村金融发展,进而缓解农户信贷约束,对激发农户发展的内生动力至关重要。本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014—2018年三期的面板数据,采用条件混合回归(CMP)考察互联网使用对农户信贷的影响。研究发现,总体上互联网使用能缓解农户信贷约束,使用互联网使农户获得信贷的概率和规模分别增加5.48%和31.18%。其中,互联网使用使农户获得正规信贷的概率和规模分别提高6.45%和43.22%,但对农户非正规信贷影响不显著,说明缓解农户信贷约束主要体现在正规信贷层面。进一步地,通过多维度的农户异质性分析发现,互联网使用缓解农户信贷约束在中等收入以上、有外出务工和中等经营规模以上农户群体内作用强度更大且更显著,表明互联网使用促进农户信贷上存在“精英俘获”现象,且在正规信贷和非正规信贷上具有差异。而且,在考虑样本自选择问题和变量设置偏差后,结果依然稳健。因此,发展并普及互联网对完善农村信贷市场、缓解农户信贷约束成效显著,应充分激发“互联网+”赋能农业的活力,但也要重视“非精英”农户尤其是贫困农户的共享发展问题。

Whether “Internet +” can empower rural financial development and thereby ease the credit constraints of farmers is of vital importance to stimulating the endogenous motivation of farmers’ development.Based on the panel data of the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) from 2014 to 2018,this research uses Conditional Mixed Regression(CMP) to examine the impact of Internet usage on farmers’ credit.It is demonstrated that Internet usage is generally capable of alleviating the credit constraints of farmers,and Internet usage has increased the probability and scale of credit for farmers by 5.48% and 31.18%,respectively.Among the results,the probability and scale of farmers obtaining formal credit have increased by 6.45% and 43.22%,but the impact on farmers’ informal credit is not significant,which indicates that the Internet usage to ease farmers’ credit constraints is mainly reflected in the aspect of formal credit.Furthermore,a multi-dimensional analysis of the heterogeneity of farmers finds that the effect of Internet usage on alleviating farmers’ credit constraints is more significant and stronger in the groups of farmers who are above middle income,working outside,and above medium-scale management.It indicates that there is a phenomenon of “elite capture” in the promotion of farmers’ credit and a statistically significant difference between formal credit and informal credit.Moreover,after considering sample self-selection and variable setting bias,the empirical results of this paper are still robust.Therefore,the development and popularization of the Internet have achieved significant performance in improving the rural credit market and alleviating the credit constraints of farmers.Not only more efforts should be employed to facilitate the vitality of which “Internet +” empowers agriculture development,but full attention also can be paid to the sharing and development issues of “non-elite” farmers,especially poor farmers.